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首页> 外文期刊>British Journal of Cancer >A computer simulation model for the practical planning of cervical cancer screening programmes
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A computer simulation model for the practical planning of cervical cancer screening programmes

机译：用于子宫颈癌筛查程序实际计划的计算机仿真模型

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There is ample evidence of the efficacy of cytological screening in the prevention of cervical cancer but disagreement on the form which screening programmes should take. Simulation models have been used as a convenient and rapid method of exploring the outcome of different screening policies and of demonstrating the importance and interrelationships of the variables concerned. However, most such models are either too abstract or too simplistic to be of practical value in planning screening programmes. A model is described which reproduces demographic events in a female population (that of England and Wales) over a 30 year period, and onto this superimposes the natural history of cervical carcinoma, using data derived from published studies. A microsimulation approach--each individual in the population being retained as a unit--allows factors such as disease onset and screening uptake to be dependent upon personal characteristics and past events. Screening can be offered as part of a routine programme, or incidentally--for example during pregnancy or hospital attendance. The model allows quantitative evaluation of the complex patterns of screening that are actually observed and the relative importance of the different components of such screening programmes. Assumptions about natural history can thus be studied.
机译：有足够的证据表明细胞学筛查可预防宫颈癌，但在筛查程序应采取的形式上存在分歧。模拟模型已被用作一种便捷，快速的方法，用于探索不同筛选策略的结果以及证明相关变量的重要性和相互关系。但是，大多数这样的模型要么太抽象，要么太简单，以至于在规划筛查计划时没有实用价值。描述了一种模型，该模型可使用30年来再现女性人口（英格兰和威尔士人口）中的人口统计学事件，并使用已发表的研究数据叠加宫颈癌的自然病史。微观模拟方法-将人口中的每个人作为一个整体保留-允许疾病发作和筛查摄取等因素取决于个人特征和过去的事件。筛查可以作为例行计划的一部分提供，也可以附带提供，例如在怀孕或出勤期间。该模型可以定量评估实际观察到的复杂筛选模式，以及此类筛选程序不同组成部分的相对重要性。因此可以研究关于自然历史的假设。

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