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Evaluation of simplified acute physiology score 3 performance: a systematic review of external validation studies

机译:简化的急性生理学评分3表现的评估:外部验证研究的系统评价

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IntroductionSimplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) was the first critical care prognostic model developed from worldwide data. We aimed to systematically review studies that assessed the prognostic performance of SAPS 3 general and customized models for predicting hospital mortality in adult patients admitted to the ICU.MethodsMedline, Lilacs, Scielo and Google Scholar were searched to identify studies which assessed calibration and discrimination of general and customized SAPS 3 equations. Additionally, we decided to evaluate the correlation between trial size (number of included patients) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistics value of the SAPS 3 models.ResultsA total of 28 studies were included. Of these, 11 studies (42.8%) did not find statistically significant mis-calibration for the SAPS 3 general equation. There was a positive correlation between number of included patients and higher H-L statistics, that is, a statistically significant mis-calibration of the model (r?=?0.747, P <0.001). Customized equations for major geographic regions did not have statistically significant departures from perfect calibration in 9 of 19 studies. Five studies (17.9%) developed a regional customization and in all of them this new model was not statistically different from a perfect calibration for their populations. Discrimination was at least very good in 24 studies (85.7%).ConclusionsStatistically significant departure from perfect calibration for the SAPS 3 general equation was common in validation studies and was correlated with larger studies, as should be expected, since H-L statistics (both C and H) are strongly dependent on sample size This finding was also present when major geographic customized equations were evaluated. Local customizations, on the other hand, improved SAPS 3 calibration. Discrimination was almost always very good or excellent, which gives excellent perspectives for local customization when a precise local estimate is needed.
机译:简介简化的急性生理评分3(SAPS 3)是根据全球数据开发的首个重症监护预后模型。我们旨在系统地评估评估SAPS 3通用和定制模型以预测ICU住院成年患者的医院死亡率的预后研究的研究方法.Medline,Lilacs,Scielo和Google Scholar进行检索,以鉴定评估常规校正和歧视的研究和定制的SAPS 3方程式。此外,我们决定评估试验规模(纳入患者数)与SAPS 3模型的Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)统计值之间的相关性。结果总共包括28项研究。在这些研究中,有11项研究(42.8%)并未发现SAPS 3通用方程的统计显着错误校准。纳入的患者人数与较高的H-L统计量之间存在正相关关系,即该模型的统计显着错误校准(r?=?0.747,P <0.001)。在19个研究中的9个中,针对主要地理区域的自定义方程式与完美校准没有统计学上的显着差异。五项研究(占17.9%)开发了区域自定义设置,在所有这些研究中,新模型在统计学上与针对其人口的完美校准没有统计学差异。至少在24个研究中有很好的区分(85.7%)。结论在验证研究中,与SAPS 3通用方程式完美校准的统计显着差异是普遍存在的,并且与较大的研究相关,这是可以预期的,因为HL统计(C和H)在很大程度上取决于样本量。在评估主要的地理定制方程时,也存在此发现。另一方面,本地自定义改进了SAPS 3校准。区分几乎总是非常好或非常好,当需要精确的本地估计时,这为本地定制提供了绝佳的视角。

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