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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Microbiology >Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for the Growth of Vibrio vulnificus in Postharvest Shellstock Oysters
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Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for the Growth of Vibrio vulnificus in Postharvest Shellstock Oysters

机译：捕捞贝类牡蛎中创伤弧菌生长预测模型的开发和验证

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Postharvest growth of Vibrio vulnificus in oysters can increase risk of human infection. Unfortunately, limited information is available regarding V. vulnificus growth and survival patterns over a wide range of storage temperatures in oysters harvested from different estuaries and in different oyster species. In this study, we developed a predictive model for V. vulnificus growth in Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) harvested from Chesapeake Bay, MD, over a temperature range of 5 to 30°C and then validated the model against V. vulnificus growth rates (GRs) in Eastern and Asian oysters ( Crassostrea ariakensis ) harvested from Mobile Bay, AL, and Chesapeake Bay, VA, respectively. In the model development studies, V. vulnificus was slowly inactivated at 5 and 10°C with average GRs of ?0.0045 and ?0.0043 log most probable number (MPN)/h, respectively. Estimated average growth rates at 15, 20, 25, and 30°C were 0.022, 0.042, 0.087, and 0.093 log MPN/h, respectively. With respect to Eastern oysters, bias ( B _(f)) and accuracy ( A _(f)) factors for model-dependent and -independent data were 1.02 and 1.25 and 1.67 and 1.98, respectively. For Asian oysters, B _(f) and A _(f) were 0.29 and 3.40. Residual variations in growth rate about the fitted model were not explained by season, region, water temperature, or salinity at harvest. Growth rate estimates for Chesapeake Bay and Mobile Bay oysters stored at 25 and 30°C showed relatively high variability and were lower than Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)/WHO V. vulnificus quantitative risk assessment model predictions. The model provides an improved tool for designing and implementing food safety plans that minimize the risk associated with V. vulnificus in oysters.
机译：牡蛎上创伤弧菌的收获后生长会增加人类感染的风险。不幸的是，关于在从不同河口和不同牡蛎种类收获的牡蛎中，在广泛的储存温度下，创伤弧菌的生长和存活模式的信息很少。在这项研究中，我们开发了从马里兰州切萨皮克湾收获的东部牡蛎（Crassostrea virginica）在5至30°C的温度范围内的V. vulnificus生长的预测模型，然后针对V. vulnificus的生长速率验证了该模型（分别从阿拉巴马州莫比尔湾和弗吉尼亚州切萨皮克湾收获的东部和亚洲牡蛎（Crassostrea ariakensis）中的GRs。在模型开发研究中，V. vulnificus在5和10°C缓慢失活，平均GR分别为0.0045和0.0043，记录的最可能数（MPN）/ h。 15、20、25和30°C时的估计平均增长率分别为0.022、0.042、0.087和0.093 log MPN / h。对于东部牡蛎，与模型相关和与模型无关的数据的偏差（B _（f））和准确性（A _（f））因子分别为1.02和1.25、1.67和1.98。对于亚洲牡蛎，B _（f）和A _（f）分别为0.29和3.40。关于拟合模型的增长率的残留变化无法通过季节，区域，水温或收获时的盐度来解释。储存在25和30°C的切萨皮克湾和移动湾牡蛎的生长率估计值显示出较高的变异性，并且低于粮食及农业组织（FAO）/ WHO V. vulnificus定量风险评估模型的预测值。该模型为设计和实施食品安全计划提供了改进的工具，可最大程度地减少与牡蛎中的创伤弧菌相关的风险。

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