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A Model for Collective Emotion Forecasts Financial Data

机译:集体情感预测财务数据模型

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Collective behaviour sums up the emotional and rational actions of many individuals. In the financial markets, the economic agents’ aggregate activity leads to price fluctuations driven by hope and fear, optimism and pessimism. While the market mood mechanism is unknown, a number of hypotheses exist including the suggestion that the mind’s complex cognitive processes scale up to the domain of socioeconomic activity. Here we show how a neurocomputational model for primitive individual emotion and memory can predict the highest and lowest daily prices of NASDAQ-traded companies. The model, known as the Grossberg–Schmajuk recurrent gated dipole, beats some state-of-the-art econometric tools for emotion–influenced financial data. This finding comprises an indirect evidence for the existence of a fractal projection from individual to collective cognition.
机译:集体行为总结了许多人的情感和理性行为。在金融市场中,经济主体的总体活动导致价格波动,其由希望和恐惧,乐观和悲观情绪驱动。尽管市场情绪机制尚不清楚,但存在许多假设,包括关于大脑复杂的认知过程扩展到社会经济活动领域的建议。在这里,我们展示了用于原始个人情感和记忆的神经计算模型如何预测纳斯达克交易公司的最高和最低每日价格。该模型称为Grossberg–Schmajuk经常性门控偶极子,它击败了一些用于情感影响的财务数据的最新计量经济学工具。这一发现包括从个人认知到集体认知的分形投影的间接证据。

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