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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of infectious diseases : >Epidemiology and ARIMA model of positive-rate of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China: A nine-year retrospective study
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Epidemiology and ARIMA model of positive-rate of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China: A nine-year retrospective study

机译：武汉市儿童流感病毒阳性率的流行病学和ARIMA模型：一项为期九年的回顾性研究

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Objective Influenza is a common childhood disease and protecting children by predicting the positive rate of influenza virus is important as vaccines are not routinely administered in China. Our study aims to describe the epidemiology of influenza viruses among children in Wuhan, China during the past nine influenza seasons (2007–2015) and to predict the positive rate of different types of influenza virus in the future. Methods During the last nine influenza seasons (2007–2015), a total of 10,232 nasopharyngeal swabs collected from pediatric outpatients (age Results A total of 1,341 specimens were positive for influenza A and 490 for influenza B. The majority of infected patients were 1–11 years old (87.7%). The ARIMA model could effectively predict the positive rate of influenza virus in a short time. ARIMA(0,0,11), SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12, ARIMA(0,0,1) and SARIMA(0,0,1)(1,0,1)12 were suitable for B(Victoria), B(Yamagata), A(H1N1)pdm09, and A(H3N2), respectively. Conclusion Additional policies must be formulated to prevent and control influenza. The wide use of influenza vaccines, especially for influenza B, especially for influenza B(Yamagata) and B(Victoria), can potentially reduce the effects of influenza on children of China.
机译：目的流感是一种常见的儿童疾病，通过预测流感病毒的阳性率来保护儿童非常重要，因为在中国没有常规疫苗。我们的研究旨在描述过去九个流感季节（2007-2015年）期间中国武汉市儿童流感病毒的流行病学，并预测未来不同类型流感病毒的阳性率。方法在过去的九个流感季节（2007年至2015年）中，从儿科门诊总共收集了10,232例鼻咽拭子（年龄结果），共有1,341份A型流感阳性标本和490份B型流感标本。 11岁（87.7％）。ARIMA模型可以在短时间内有效预测流感病毒的阳性率。ARIMA（0,0,11），SARIMA（1,0,0）（0,1,1）< sub> 12 ，ARIMA（0,0,1）和SARIMA（0,0,1）（1,0,1） 12 适用于B（维多利亚），B（结论必须制定预防和控制流感的其他政策流感疫苗的广泛使用，特别是针对乙型流感，尤其是针对乙型流感（山形）和乙型流感（维多利亚），可能会减少流感对中国儿童的影响。

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