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Empirical Analysis on The Existence of The Phillips Curve

机译:菲利普斯曲线存在性的实证分析

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The Phillips curve shows the trade-off relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates. A rise in inflation due to the high economic growth, more jobs are available and therefore unemployment will fall. However, the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries has not been much discussed. Countries with high income should have low unemployment rate, suggesting a high inflation. However, some high-income countries, the United States in 1970s for example, could not avert stagflation whereby high unemployment rate and inflation occurred in the same time. This situation is contrary to the Phillips curve. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the existence of the Phillips curve in high-income countries for the period 1990-2014 using the panel data analysis. The most interesting finding of this study is the existence of a bidirectional relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate in both long and short runs. Therefore, the governments should choose to stabilize inflation rate or reduce unemployment rate.
机译:菲利普斯曲线显示了通货膨胀与失业率之间的权衡关系。由于高经济增长导致通货膨胀上升,可提供更多工作,因此失业率将下降。但是,在高收入国家中菲利普斯曲线的存在还没有太多讨论。高收入国家应该有较低的失业率,这表明通货膨胀率很高。但是,一些高收入国家(例如,1970年代的美国)无法避免滞胀现象,而高失业率和通货膨胀是同时发生的。这种情况与菲利普斯曲线相反。因此,本研究旨在使用面板数据分析来调查1990-2014年期间高收入国家的菲利普斯曲线的存在。这项研究最有趣的发现是长期和短期失业率和通货膨胀率之间存在双向关系。因此,各国政府应选择稳定通货膨胀率或降低失业率。

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