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首页> 外文期刊>Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences >The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria
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The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria

机译：政府最优规模与经济增长之间的关系：来自土耳其，罗马尼亚和保加利亚的经验证据

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In this study the relationship between government expenditure and rate of economic growth will be analyzed for Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria by using the data for the period 1995-2011. The main purpose of this study is to test whether there is an “inverted U” shape relationship between public spending and economic growth or not, and to find the optimal level of public spending for Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria economies. Theoretically, the relationship between optimal government expenditure and economic growth has been associated with Armey curve. Armey Curve, propounded by Richard Armey, is one of the tools that developed to demonstrates the role of the state in the economic process. The basic logic behind the Armey Curve is that the relationship between public spending and gross domestic product (GDP) is positive up to a certain point, thereafter the relationship becomes negative. According to Friedman (1997), the government has an important role in a free and open society. It is emphasized that, average contribution of the public sector in the economy is positive, but as the public share of national income increases from 15% to 50% the marginal contribution of the public sector will be negative. Therefore, Friedman advocates that based on development level of countries, the optimal level of public spending should be between 15% and 50%. The econometric method using in this study is ARDL bound testing approach developed by Paseran et al. (2001). Empirical findings show that the share of present public expenditure in GDP exceeds optimal public expenditure for three countries. Based on the results of the study, an economic policy proposal may be that the share of public expenditure should be reduced and the effectiveness of public expenditure programs should be increased.
机译：在这项研究中，将使用1995-2011年期间的数据分析土耳其，罗马尼亚和保加利亚的政府支出与经济增长率之间的关系。这项研究的主要目的是检验公共支出与经济增长之间是否存在“倒U型”关系，并找到土耳其，罗马尼亚和保加利亚经济体的最佳公共支出水平。从理论上讲，最优政府支出与经济增长之间的关系与阿米曲线相关。由理查德·阿米（Richard Armey）提出的阿米曲线（Armey Curve）是用来证明国家在经济过程中的作用的工具之一。 Armey曲线背后的基本逻辑是，公共支出与国内生产总值（GDP）之间的关系在一定程度上是正的，此后该关系变为负。根据弗里德曼（Friedman，1997）的观点，政府在自由开放的社会中发挥着重要作用。需要强调的是，公共部门在经济中的平均贡献是正的，但是随着国民收入中公共份额从15％增加到50％，公共部门的边际贡献将是负的。因此，弗里德曼主张，根据国家的发展水平，公共支出的最佳水平应在15％至50％之间。本研究中使用的计量经济学方法是Paseran等人开发的ARDL绑定测试方法。 （2001）。实证结果表明，三个国家目前的公共支出在GDP中所占的份额超过了最佳公共支出。根据研究结果，一项经济政策建议可能是减少公共支出的份额，并提高公共支出计划的有效性。

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