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首页> 外文期刊>Scientific reports. >A New Method to Jointly Estimate the Mortality Risk of Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and its Components
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A New Method to Jointly Estimate the Mortality Risk of Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and its Components

机译：联合估算长期接触细颗粒物及其组分的死亡率风险的新方法

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Most studies on the association between exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality have considered only total concentration of PM2.5 or individual components of PM2.5, and not the combined effects of concentration and particulate composition. We sought to develop a method to estimate the risk of death from long-term exposure to PM2.5 and the distribution of its components, namely: sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, organic mass, black carbon, and mineral dust. We decomposed PM2.5 exposure into the sum of total concentration and the proportion of each component. We estimated the risk of death due to exposure using a cohort of ~2.4 million Canadians who were followed for vital status over 16 years. Modelling the concentration of PM2.5 with the distribution of the proportions of components together was a superior predictor for mortality than either total PM2.5 concentration alone, or all component concentrations modelled together. Our new approach has the advantage of characterizing the toxicity of the atmosphere in its entirety. This is required to fully understand the health benefits associated with strategies to improve air quality that may result in complex changes not only in PM2.5 concentration, but also in the distribution of particle components.
机译：大多数关于暴露于细颗粒物（PM 2.5 ）与死亡率之间关系的研究都只考虑了PM 2.5 的总浓度或PM 2.5 的单个成分。而不是浓度和颗粒成分的综合影响。我们试图开发一种方法来估算长期暴露于PM 2.5 的死亡风险及其成分的分布，这些成分包括：硫酸盐，硝酸盐，铵，有机物，黑碳和矿物质灰尘。我们将PM 2.5 暴露量分解为总浓度和每种成分的比例之和。我们使用约240万名加拿大人进行了评估，估计他们因暴露而死亡的风险，其生命状态在16年以上。与单独的PM 2.5 的总浓度或一起建模的所有组分的浓度相比，利用各组分的比例分布对PM 2.5 的浓度进行建模可以更好地预测死亡率。我们的新方法具有表征整个大气毒性的优势。需要充分了解与改善空气质量的策略有关的健康益处，这些策略可能不仅导致PM 2.5 浓度的复杂变化，而且还会导致颗粒成分的分布发生复杂的变化。

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