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首页> 外文期刊>Scientific reports. >The temporal distribution of new H7N9 avian influenza infections based on laboratory-confirmed cases in Mainland China, 2013–2017
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The temporal distribution of new H7N9 avian influenza infections based on laboratory-confirmed cases in Mainland China, 2013–2017

机译：基于实验室确诊病例的中国大陆2013-2017年新H7N9禽流感感染的时间分布

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In this study, estimates of the growth rate of new infections, based on the growth rate of new laboratory-confirmed cases, were used to provide a statistical basis for in-depth research into the epidemiological patterns of H7N9 epidemics. The incubation period, interval from onset to laboratory confirmation, and confirmation time for all laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in Mainland China, occurring between January 2013 and June 2017, were used as the statistical data. Stochastic processes theory and maximum likelihood were used to calculate the growth rate of new infections. Time-series analysis was then performed to assess correlations between the time series of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases. The rate of new infections showed significant seasonal fluctuation. Laboratory confirmation was delayed by a period of time longer than that of the infection (average delay, 13 days; standard deviation, 6.8 days). At the lags of ?7.5 and ?15 days, respectively, the time-series of new infections and new confirmed cases were significantly correlated; the cross correlation coefficients (CCFs) were 0.61 and 0.16, respectively. The temporal distribution characteristics of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases were similar and strongly correlated.
机译：在这项研究中，根据新的实验室确诊病例的增长率估算新感染的增长率，为深入研究H7N9流行病的流行病学模式提供了统计依据。统计数据为2013年1月至2017年6月在中国大陆所有H7N9禽流感确诊病例的潜伏期，发病时间至实验室确认的间隔以及确认时间。随机过程理论和最大可能性被用来计算新感染的增长率。然后进行时间序列分析以评估新感染和实验室确诊病例的时间序列之间的相关性。新感染率显示出明显的季节性波动。实验室确认的延迟时间要长于感染的时间（平均延迟时间为13天;标准差为6.8天）。在分别为7.5和15天的滞后时间，新感染和新确诊病例的时间序列显着相关。互相关系数（CCFs）分别为0.61和0.16。新感染和实验室确诊病例的时间分布特征相似且密切相关。

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