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Hazards of extreme events in China under different global warming targets

机译：不同全球变暖目标下中国极端事件的危害

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Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events affect the risk pattern of risk-bearing bodies and the effectiveness of response measures. Based on future climate scenario data, in this study, we identify global warming periods of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and the temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation in China during the same period, propose a methodology for risk assessment and integrated analysis of extreme events, build a database of extreme events and their hazards in China in the context of climate change, and assess the hazards caused by extreme events (i.e., heatwaves, floods, and droughts) in China under different warming periods. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, global temperatures increase by 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2029 and 2026 and by 2050 and 2040, respectively. The warming would be fast in the north and slow in the south, the warming of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would accelerate, and the precipitation would increase in the north and decrease in the south, but the trend of the precipitation reduction in the south would be more significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. For 2°C of warming, the hazard index of severe heatwaves in the North China Plain, parts of South China, and the western part of Inner Mongolia would double that of 1.5°C warming. Regional differences in extreme precipitation would increase, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario, the hazard index of severe floods in parts of East China would be about twice that of 1.5°C warming. Under the joint influence of rising temperature and changing precipitation, the drought situation would be alleviated under the RCP4.5 scenario, but it is intensified under the RCP8.5 scenario. For 2°C of warming, the hazard index of severe droughts in some areas would reach three times that of 1.5°C warming. For the integrated hazard of the three types of extreme events, the areas of high and medium hazards would expand, while the areas of low hazard would decrease. For 2°C of warming, the areas of high and medium hazards would be more than half the total area.
机译：极端事件的频率和强度的变化会影响风险轴承体的风险模式及反应措施的有效性。基于未来的气候情景数据，在本研究中，我们确定了最高温暖时期为1.5°C和2°C以上预工业水平，以及中国在同一时期内的温度和降水量的时间和空间模式提出了一种方法对于极端事件的风险评估和综合分析，在气候变化的背景下在中国建立一个极端事件及其危害的数据库，并评估中国在不同的中国极端事件（即热浪，洪水和干旱）引起的危害变暖时期。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5的情况下，全球温度分别在2029和2026和2050年和2040年之前增加了1.5°C和2°C以上预工业水平。南部的北方变暖将快速，青藏高原的变暖会加速，南北降水会增加，南方下降，但南部降水减少的趋势根据RCP8.5场景更加重要。对于2°C的变暖，南方华北平原严重热浪危害指数，内蒙古的西部的灾害指数将使1.5°C变暖。极端降水的区域差异将增加，特别是在RCP8.5场景下，华东地区重大洪水的危害指数将是1.5°C的两倍。在上升温度和降水变化的联合影响下，干旱情况将在RCP4.5场景下减轻，但它在RCP8.5场景下加剧。对于2°C的变暖，一些区域的严重干旱的危害指数将达到1.5°C的升温的三倍。对于三种类型的极端事件的综合危害，高中危害的区域会扩大，而低危险区域会降低。对于2°C的变暖，高中危害的区域将超过总面积的一半。

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