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首页> 外文期刊>BMC Pulmonary Medicine >Are risk predicting models useful for estimating survival of patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease?
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Are risk predicting models useful for estimating survival of patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease?

机译：是否有风险预测模型，可用于估算类风湿性关节炎相关的间质性肺病患者的存活？

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Background Risk predicting models have been applied in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but still not validated in patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). The purpose of this study was to test the suitability of three prediction models as well as individual lung function and demographic factors for evaluating the prognosis of RA-ILD patients. Methods Clinical and radiological data of 59 RA-ILD patients was re-assessed. GAP (gender, age, physiologic variables) and the modified interstitial lung disease (ILD)-GAP as well as the composite physiologic indexes (CPI) were tested for predicting mortality using the goodness-of-fit test and Cox model. Potential predictors of mortality were also sought from single lung function parameters and clinical characteristics. Results The median survival was 152 and 61?months in GAP / ILD-GAP stages I and II ( p =?0.017). Both GAP and ILD-GAP models accurately estimated 1-year, 2-year and 3-year mortality. CPI ( p =?0.025), GAP ( p =?0.008) and ILD-GAP ( p =?0.028) scores, age ( p =?0.002), baseline diffusion capacity to carbon monoxide (DLCO) ( p =?0.014) and hospitalization due to respiratory reasons ( p =?0.039), were significant predictors of mortality in the univariate analysis, whereas forced vital capacity (FVC) was not predictive. CPI score (HR 1.03, p =?0.018) and baseline DLCO (HR 0.97, p =?0.011) remained significant predictors of mortality after adjusting for age. Conclusions GAP and ILD-GAP are applicable for evaluating the risk of death of patients with RA-ILD in a similar manner as in those with IPF. Baseline DLCO and CPI score also predicted survival.
机译：背景技术预测模型已应用于特发性肺纤维化（IPF），但仍未验证类风湿性关节炎相关间质性肺病（RA-ILD）。本研究的目的是测试三种预测模型以及个体肺功能和人口因子的适用性，用于评估RA-ILD患者的预后。方法重新评估59例RA-ILD患者的临床和放射数据。测试间隙（性别，年龄，生理变量）和改性的间质肺疾病（ILD）-GAP以及复合生理指标（CPI），用于使用拟合良好测试和COX模型预测死亡率。来自单肺功能参数和临床特征也寻求死亡率的潜在预测因子。结果中位生存期为152和61？几个月间隙/ ILD - 间隙阶段I和II（P = 0.017）。间隙和差距模型都准确估计了1年，2年和3年的死亡率。 CPI（p = 0.025），间隙（p = 0.008）和ILD-GAP（P = 0.028）分数，年龄（P = 0.002），基线扩散能力为一氧化碳（DLCO）（P = 0.014）由于呼吸原因（p = 0.039），由于呼吸分析中死亡率的显着预测因子，而强迫致命能力（FVC）是显着的。 CPI评分（HR 1.03，P = 0.018）和基线DLCO（HR 0.97，P = 0.011）在调整年龄后，仍然存在显着的死亡率预测因子。结论间隙和差距适用于评估RA-ILD患者死亡的风险，与IPF类似的方式。基线DLCO和CPI评分也预测生存。

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