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On the robust drivers of public debt in Africa: Fresh evidence from Bayesian model averaging approach

机译：论非洲公共债务的强大驱动因素：贝叶斯模型的新证据平均方法

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While economic theory suggests a wide range of potential drivers of public debt, there is little consensus regarding the most relevant ones. This paper analyzes the determinants of the public debt in Africa. This is done by adopting a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach applied to data of 51 African countries, spanning the period 1990–2018. Our results suggest that, among the set of twenty-seven (27) regressors considered, those reflecting international financial and institutional conditions as well as internal economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. Then, the study explores the effect of these regressors on public debt by employing the fixed effects (FE) and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators. The results reveal that, foreign aid, fiscal deficit, trade openness, military expenditure, interest and exchange rates, debt-service, domestic credit, government stability index, political regime type and socio-economic crises are the main and robust drivers of public debt accumulation in African countries. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification, the inclusion of socio-economic crises and regional heterogeneities.
机译：虽然经济理论表明广泛的公共债务驱动因素，但对最相关的潜在驾驶员略有共识。本文分析了非洲公共债务的决定因素。这是通过采用应用于51个非洲国家的数据的贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法来完成的，跨越1990 - 2018年。我们的研究结果表明，在考虑的二十七（27）份回归者中，那些反映了国际金融和机构条件以及内部经济前景的人往往会获得高层纳入概率。然后，该研究探讨了通过采用固定效应（FE）和System广义的时刻（GMM）估算方法对公共债务对公共债务的影响。结果表明，外援，财政赤字，贸易开放，军事开放，债务和汇率，债务服务，国内信贷，政府稳定指数，政治制度类型和社会经济危机是公共债务的主要和强大的驱动因素在非洲国家的积累。这些发现对模型规范的变化，包括社会经济危机和区域异质性的稳健性。

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