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Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

机译：日本的FDI司机在金融不确定性的时期。 基于贝叶斯模型平均的新证据

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摘要

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996-2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.
机译：在本文中，我们分析了1996 - 2017年日本外国直接投资股的决定因素。这一时期特别相关，因为它涵盖了越来越多的经济全球化和两个金融危机的过程。为此目的，我们考虑基于该理论以及以前的实证分析一大一组候选变量。我们的样品共有27个东道国。我们使用数据驱动方法选择协变量，贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）分析。此外，我们还分析了这些决定因素是否根据所考虑的国家的发展程度或地理区域（欧盟与东亚）而变化。我们发现日本的外国直接投资可以通过各种各样的变量来解释，这不仅包括典型的引力，而且包括制度和宏观经济变量，包括衡量金融发展的宏观经济变量。此外，日本外国直接投资可以通过分析的国家群体中的水平和垂直的外国直接投资动机来解释。然而，在发达的，更准确地说，欧盟国家，水平外国直接投资策略是主要的，而对于东亚和新兴国家，有更多的证据支持垂直直接投资。

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