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首页> 外文期刊>Complexity >Validating a Phenomenological Mathematical Model for Public Health and Safety Interventions Influencing the Evolutionary Stages of Recent Outbreak for Long-Term and Short-Term Domains in Pakistan
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Validating a Phenomenological Mathematical Model for Public Health and Safety Interventions Influencing the Evolutionary Stages of Recent Outbreak for Long-Term and Short-Term Domains in Pakistan

机译：验证公共卫生和安全干预现象学数学模型，影响巴基斯坦长期爆发近期爆发的进化阶段

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During the outbreak of an epidemic, it becomes significantly essential to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast the outbreak, including the epidemic peak. Many countries have either implemented strict lockdown to counter the spread of coronavirus disease or taken necessary preventive measures across the world to reduce the outbreak of this epidemic war. Several epidemic models have been presented across the world to examine the effects of public health-related strategies on mitigating the spread of current infectious disease, yet no reputable model has been presented for Pakistan as well as other South-Asian developing countries as per the authors’ knowledge. In this research, an actual coronavirus prediction in Pakistan is presented, which may guide the decision-makers as to how this pandemic has spread across the country and how it can be controlled. Furthermore, in the absence of targeted medicines, the analysis helps to develop a precise plan for the eradication of the outbreak by adopting the calculated steps at the right time. The mathematical phenomenological models have been adopted in this study to predict, project, and simulate the overall affected cases reflected due to the recent outbreak in Pakistan. These models predict the expected growth, and the estimated results are almost well matched with the real cases. Through the calibration of parameters and analyzing the current situation, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Pakistan is reported till the end of this year. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach specific levels are also reported through the simulations. The drastic conditions are also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed. This research quantitatively describes the significant characteristics of the spread of corona cases. It acknowledges and provides an understanding of a short-term and long-term transmission of coronavirus outbreak in the country as three evolutionary phases. Therefore, this research provides a pathway to cope with the emerging threat of a severe outbreak in developing and nondeveloping countries.
机译：在疫情爆发期间，监测遏制措施的影响并预测爆发，包括疫情峰值变得明显。许多国家要么实施严格的锁定，以抵消冠状病毒病的传播或在世界各地采取必要的预防措施，以减少这种流行病的爆发。世界各地展示了几种流行病模型，以研究公共卫生相关策略对减轻当前传染病的蔓延的影响，但由于作者，巴基斯坦以及其他南亚发展中国家没有展示良好的模型' 知识。在这项研究中，提出了巴基斯坦的实际冠状病毒预测，这可能引导决策者对这种大流行如何传播全国以及如何控制。此外，在没有靶向药物的情况下，分析有助于通过在正确时间采用计算的步骤来制定一项精确的消除爆发的计划。本研究中采用了数学现象学模型，以预测，项目和模拟整体影响案件，因巴基斯坦最近的爆发而受到反映的。这些模型预测预期的增长，估计结果与实际情况几乎与实际情况相匹配。通过参数的校准并分析当前情况，报告了今年年底的巴基斯坦新案例的预测。还通过模拟报道了患者数量的恒定程度和达到特定水平的时间。还讨论了激烈的条件，如果删除所有预防束缚，可能会发生这种情况。该研究定量地描述了电晕案例扩散的重要特征。它承认并在国家的三个进化阶段理解了国家冠状病毒爆发的短期和长期传播。因此，本研究提供了应对发展中国家和不开发国家严重爆发的新出现威胁的途径。

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