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Modeling Method of the Grey GM(1,1) Model with Interval Grey Action Quantity and Its Application

机译：间隔灰色动作数量的灰色GM（1,1）模型的建模方法及其应用

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GM(1,1) is a univariate grey prediction model with incomplete structural information, in which the real number form of the simulation or prediction data does not conform to the Nonuniqueness Principle of Grey theoretical solution. In light of the network model of GM(1,1), the connotation of grey action quantity is systematically analyzed and the interval grey number form of grey action quantity is restored under uncertain influencing factors. A novel GM(1,1) model is then constructed. The new model has the basic characteristics of the grey model under incomplete information. Moreover, it can be fully compatible with the traditional GM(1,1) model. The developed model is employed to the natural gas consumption prediction in China, showing that its predicting rationality is much better than that of the traditional GM(1,1) model. It is worth mentioning that, for the first time, the grey property of GM(1,1) has been restored in structure, which is of significance for both academia and industry.
机译：GM（1,1）是具有不完整结构信息的单变量灰色预测模型，其中模拟或预测数据的实数形式不符合灰色理论解决方案的非承诺原理。鉴于GM（1,1）的网络模型，系统地分析了灰色动作量的内涵，并且在不确定的影响因素下恢复了灰色动作量的间隔灰度数形式。然后构建新的GM（1,1）模型。新模型具有不完整信息下灰色模型的基本特征。此外，它可以与传统的GM（1,1）模型完全兼容。开发的模型用于中国的天然气消耗预测，表明其预测合理性远远优于传统的GM（1,1）模型。值得一提的是，首次在结构中恢复了GM（1,1）的灰色属性，这对学术界和工业有重要意义。

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