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首页> 外文期刊>Annals of Medicine and Surgery >A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic
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A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic

机译：一种数学模型，以指导科维德 - 19流行病中经济重新开放的数学模型

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Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, continues to surge, with more than 12 million laboratory-confirmed cases and over 500,000 deaths worldwide (as of 11 July 2020). Aside from the continued surge in cases and the imperatives of public health concern and saving lives, economic devastation is also mounting with a global depression now seeming inevitable. There is limited attention directed towards people who have recovered from the virus and whether this metric can be useful in guiding when the economy can be re-opened. In this paper, a simpler model is presented in order to guide various countries on the (possible) re-opening of the economy (or re-opening in stages/phases) alongside risk categories and ratios. Factors that need to be considered when applying the model include the healthcare capacity in terms of the number of hospitals, beds and healthcare workers that are available to capacitate this virus. In addition, population size, physical distancing measures, socio-economic disparities, lockdown regulations in each country, and more importantly - the amount and accuracy of testing conducted, is also imperative to consider. Decisions adopted by leaders around the world have the most difficult decision to make (yet), and have to weigh up on what really matters; health or wealth. It is suggested that this model be applied in a number of states/counties and countries in order to gauge the risk of their location being re-opened, by observing their total number of recoveries in proximity to total number of cases.
机译：尽管全球遏制检疫和检疫努力，严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-COV-2）的发病率仍然被称为Covid-19，仍然飙升，超过1200万实验室证实病例和超过50万人死亡全世界（截至2020年7月11日）。除了案例的持续飙升和公共卫生关注和挽救生命的必要性，经济破坏也在似乎不可避免地与全球抑郁症安装。有限的注意力针对从病毒恢复的人以及这种度量在经济可以重新开放时可用的人。在本文中，提出了一种更简单的模型，以指导各国（可能）重新打开经济（或以阶段/阶段重新开放）的风险类别和比率。应用该模型时需要考虑的因素包括医院，床和医疗员工人数的医疗保健能力，这些工人可用于该病毒的能力。此外，人口规模，身体疏散措施，社会经济差异，锁定法规，更重要的是 - 进行的测试的数量和准确性也必须考虑。世界各地领导人通过的决定具有最困难的决定（尚未），并且必须对真正重要的重视;健康或财富。有人建议，该模型适用于许多国家/县和各国，以便通过观察靠近案件总数的恢复总数来衡量他们的位置的风险。

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