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Uncertainty Analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation in a Life Cycle Assessment of Water-Saving Project in Green Buildings

机译：蒙特卡罗模拟在绿色建筑节水项目中蒙特卡罗模拟的不确定性分析

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The complexity of the water-saving project in green buildings when analyzing its Life cycle cost (LLC) renders analytic methods very difficult to be applied. The objective of this study is to conduct a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on comprehensive benefit model for water saving in green buildings. Monte Carlo methodology, which substitutes point estimates with random numbers obtained from probability density functions and then builds models of possible results, was applied to calculation in this study. Crystal Ball is utilized to carry out the uncertainty analysis. The most relevant parameters in comprehensive water-saving benefits are identified, which are the annual growth rate in stable phase of water price, discount rate and annual growth rate in transitional period of water price.
机译：在分析其生命周期成本（LLC）时，节水项目在绿色建筑中的复杂性呈现出非常难以应用的分析方法。本研究的目的是在绿色建筑中综合福利模型进行生命周期评估（LCA）。 Monte Carlo方法，其替代从概率密度函数获得的随机数的点估计，然后构建可能结果的模型，应用于本研究的计算。水晶球用于执行不确定性分析。鉴定了综合节水益处中最相关的参数，是水价稳定阶段的年增长率，过渡时期的水价稳定。

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