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首页> 外文期刊>Global change biology bioenergy >Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus?×?giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China
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Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus?×?giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

机译：Miscanthus的农场生产成本和经济潜力的时空评估？×？Giganteus，Panicum Virgatum L.和Joatropha在中国的边缘土地上种植

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Spatially explicit farm‐gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost–supply curves. The average farm‐gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9?CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5?CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4?CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909?CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%‐15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477?CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7?EJ/year at a cost of less than 25?CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0?EJ/year at a cost of less than 30?CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6?EJ/year at a cost of less than 25?CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1?EJ/year at a cost of less than 500?CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm‐gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha , the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm‐gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€?=?7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).
机译：采用空间核算方法调查了2017年和2040年在中国提供了三种能源作物的空间明确的农场生产成本和经济潜力。来自所有可用边际土地的平均农场成本计算为32.9？CNY / GJ用于MISCanthus模式，27.5？CNY / GJ用于SwitchGrass模式，32.4？CNY / GJ用于MISCanthus和SwitchGrass模式，909？CNY / GJ 2017年的Joatropha模式。预计Miscanthus和Switchgrass的成本预计将减少约11％-15％，而Joatropha的成本预计将在2040年增加5％。麻风手的成本从193年到9,477 / GJ跨越地区，由于地区的产量差异巨大。边际土地的经济潜力计算为28.7欧元/年，费用低于25次，用于MISCanthus模式的CNY / GJ，4.0？EJ /年，成本低于30？CNY / GJ用于SwitchGrass模式， 29.6？ej /年以低于25的费用，用于MISCanthus和Switchgrass模式的CNY / GJ，0.1 ej / ej /年，费用小于500？2017年的Jatropha模式的CNY / GJ。这是不可行的鉴于其高生产成本，基于现有技术开发基于现有技术的边际土地的麻风树生产。因此，Miscanthus和Switchgrass模式是最经济的方式，因为它与其他模式相比实现了最高的经济潜力。灵敏度分析表明，Miscanthus和SwitchGrass的农场栅极成本对与产量降低和收获成本相关的不确定性最敏感，而对于恶化性，不可预测的产量对其农场成本的影响最大。本研究可以帮助政策制定者和工业利益相关者在中国进行战略和战术生物能的发展计划（2017年的汇率：1€？=？7.63¥;本文的所有焦耳都是较高的热值）。

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