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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution >Climate Change Is Likely to Alter Future Wolf – Moose – Forest Interactions at Isle Royale National Park, United States
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Climate Change Is Likely to Alter Future Wolf – Moose – Forest Interactions at Isle Royale National Park, United States

机译：气候变化可能会改变未来的狼 - 驼鹿 - 森林互动，美国伊斯莱斯国家公园，美国

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We evaluated how climate change and variable rates of moose browsing intensity, as they relate to wolf predation, might impact the forests of Isle Royale National Park, MI USA by conducting a simulation modelling experiment. The experiment consisted of contrasting three different scenarios of wolf management and with a static (current conditions) and changing climate (high emissions). Our results suggest that the interactive effects of wolf predation and climate change are likely to be temporally variable and dependent on biogeographic and forest successional processes. During the first 50 years of simulations, when the effects of climate change were minor, higher simulated rates of predation by wolves reduced moose population densities, resulting in greater forest biomass and higher carrying capacities for moose. However, over the longer term, early successional and highly palatable aspen and birch forests transitioned to late successional spruce and fir forests, regardless of climate or predation intensity. After 50 years, the effects of climate change and predation were driven by effects on balsam fir, a late successional species that is highly palatable to moose. High-intensity predation of moose allowed balsam fir to persist over the long term but only under the current climate scenario. Climate change caused a reduction in balsam fir and the other boreal species that moose currently feed on, and the few temperate species found on this isolated island were unable to compensate for such reductions, causing strong declines in total forest biomass. The direct effects of moose population management via reintroduction of wolves may become increasingly ineffective as the climate continues to warm because the productivity of boreal plant species may not be sufficient to support a moose population at all, and the isolation of the island from mainland temperate tree species may reduce the likelihood of compensatory species migrations.
机译：我们评估了气候变化和驼鹿浏览强度的可变利率，因为它们与狼捕食有关，可能会影响MI US美国的伊斯勒皇家国家公园森林，通过进行仿真建模实验。实验包括对比三种不同的狼管理场景以及静态（当前条件）和变化气候（高排放）。我们的研究结果表明，狼捕食和气候变化的互动效果可能是暂时变量，依赖生物地理和森林的继承过程。在仿真的前50年期间，当气候变化的影响较小时，狼群的捕捞量较高，狼群降低了驼鹿种群密度，导致森林生物量更大，驼鹿较高的承载能力。然而，超过长期来看，不管气候或捕食强度如何，早期的继承和高度普适的白杨和桦木森林过渡到晚期云杉和杉木森林。 50年后，气候变化和捕食的影响是由对Balsam FIR的影响驱动的，这是对驼鹿的晚期连续物种。驼鹿的高强度捕食使得Balsam FIR在长期内持续，但仅在当前的气候情景下。气候变化引起了Balsam FIR的减少以及驼鹿目前饲料的其他北部物种，并且在这个孤岛上发现的一些温带物种无法弥补此类减少，导致森林总生物质的强烈下降。由于气候持续温暖，因为气候植物物种的生产率可能不足以支持驼鹿群，并且孤立在大陆温带树上可能不足以越来越无效地越来越无效。物种可能会降低补偿性物种迁移的可能性。

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