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Climate Change Is Likely to Alter Future Wolf – Moose – Forest Interactions at Isle Royale National Park, United States

机译：气候变化可能会改变未来的狼 - 驼鹿 - 森林互动，美国伊斯莱斯国家公园，美国

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We evaluated how climate change and variable rates of moose browsing intensity, as they relate to wolf predation, might affect the forests of Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, United States by conducting a modeling experiment. The experiment consisted of contrasting three different scenarios of wolf management and with a static (current conditions) and changing climate (high emissions). Our results indicate that the interactive effects of wolf predation and climate change are likely to be temporally variable and dependent on biogeographic and forest successional processes. During the first 50 years of 120-year simulations, when the effects of climate change were less impactful, higher simulated rates of predation by wolves reduced moose population densities, resulting in greater forest biomass and higher carrying capacities for moose. However, over the longer term, early successional and highly palatable aspen and birch forests transitioned to late successional spruce and fir forests, regardless of climate or predation intensity. After 50 years, the effects of climate change and predation were driven by effects on balsam fir, a late successional conifer species that is fed on by moose. High-intensity predation of moose allowed balsam fir to persist over the long term but only under the static climate scenario. The climate change scenario caused a reduction in balsam fir and the other boreal species that moose currently feed on, and the few temperate species found on this isolated island were unable to compensate for such reductions, causing strong declines in total forest biomass. The direct effects of moose population management via reintroduction of wolves may become increasingly ineffective as the climate continues to warm because the productivity of boreal plant species may not be sufficient to support a moose population, and the isolation of the island from mainland temperate tree species may reduce the likelihood of compensatory species migrations.
机译：我们评估了莫斯浏览强度的气候变化和可变利率，因为它们与狼捕食有关，可能会通过进行建模实验，影响Michigan National Park，密歇根州的Isle Royale国家公园的森林。实验包括对比三种不同的狼管理场景以及静态（当前条件）和变化气候（高排放）。我们的结果表明，狼捕食和气候变化的互动效果可能是暂时变量，依赖生物地理和森林的继承过程。在120年的前50年的模拟中，当气候变化的影响较小时，狼群较高的模拟捕食率降低了驼鹿种群密度，导致森林生物量更大，驼鹿较高的承载能力。然而，超过长期来看，不管气候或捕食强度如何，早期的继承和高度普适的白杨和桦木森林过渡到晚期云杉和杉木森林。 50年后，气候变化和捕食的影响是由对Balsam FIR的影响驱动，这是由驼鹿喂养的晚期连续针叶树种类。驼鹿的高强度捕食使得Balsam FIR在长期内持续，但仅在静态气候情景下。气候变化情景引起了鲍瓦斯冷杉的减少以及驼鹿目前饲料的其他北方物种，​​而这岛上发现的一些温带物种无法弥补此类减少，导致森林总生物质的强劲下降。通过重新引入狼群的直接影响狼群的直接影响可能随着气候持续温暖而越来越无效，因为北方植物物种的生产率可能不足以支持驼鹿种群，并且岛屿从内地温带树种的隔离可能降低补偿性物种迁移的可能性。

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