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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions >High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches
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High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

机译：高分辨率海洋洪水建模耦合溢流和拓展过程：框架危害危险基于历史和统计方法

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A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1)?maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2)?volumes of water propagation inland and (3)?water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38?% of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62?% to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5?% in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5?% of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3?% of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3?to 0.5?m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6?m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping?∕?overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor?4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and?3.47 in flooded surfaces.
机译：实施了建模链，以提出对受欧洲沿海地区的风险的现实评估以及过流影响的沿海地区的风险。通过从区域到局部规模的嵌套缩小策略进行模拟，以高空间分辨率，具有明确的建筑物，海滨墙和液压结构等城市结构易于影响城市地区的繁殖。模型性能的验证基于硬度和软可用数据分析和对定量信息的定量信息转换，以重建受洪水影响的区域和最近的两个风暴期间的事件的继承。两个联合概率方法（关节超越轮廓和环境轮廓）用于定义100年的离岸条件方案，并根据（1）？泛滥区域的最大空间范围，调查对每个场景的洪水响应，（2）？卷水繁殖内陆和（3）？水平淹水区域。还考虑了海平面上升的情景，以评估潜在的危险进化。我们的模拟表明，为了最大化100年的危险场景，为整个市，38个？％受影响的区域易于溢出洪水，并通过沿着海滨的泛型水量传播泛滥。结果还表明，对于两种统计情况，迫使条件（水位，波高和周期）的差异约为5？％，可能会产生显着差异，如+13.5？百分比在内陆传播的水量+11.3？％受影响的表面。在某些地区，洪水响应似乎对所选择的场景非常敏感，差异为0.3？水位的0.5？m。开发的方法使一个人能够框架100年的危险，并在空间上表征鲁棒性或结果。考虑到一个平均海平面上升（0.6米）的100年情景，危害特性随着概述的速度变化而大大变化？/？溢出的过程比率和增加因子？4.84在繁殖内陆的水中繁殖？ 3.47在淹水表面。

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