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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia
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Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia

机译：日常和次日激烈降雨中的非公平性 - 第2部分：澳大利亚东南部地区的区域评估

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Using data for a common period (1976–2005) for a set of 31 sites located in south-east Australia, variations in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. Analysis of seasonality in frequency and magnitude of events revealed considerable variation across the set of sites, implying different dominating rainfall-producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. Both these factors are relevant when assessing the potential effects of climate variations on intense rainfall events. The set of sites was therefore split into groups ("north cluster" and "south cluster") according to the characteristics of intense rainfall events. There is a strong polarisation in the nature of changes found for the north cluster and south cluster. While sites in the north cluster typically exhibit decrease in frequency of events, particularly in autumn and at durations of 1 h and longer; sites in the south cluster experience an increase in frequency of events, particularly for summer and sub-hourly durations. Non-stationarity found in historical records has the potential to significantly affect design rainfall estimates. An assessment of quantile estimates derived using a standard regionalisation technique and periods representative of record lengths available for practical applications show that such estimates may not be representative of long-term conditions, so alternative approaches need to be considered, particularly where short records are concerned. Additional rainfall information, in particular radar data, could be used for an in-depth spatial analysis of intense rainfall events.
机译：使用位于澳大利亚东南部的一套31个站点的共同时期（1976-2005）的数据，评估了6分钟到72小时的持续时间越强的潮汐频率和大小的变化。这项研究是必要澄清气候变化可能影响强烈降雨量以及洪水潜力的可能性。对城市应用的次日持续时间特别感兴趣。在全球范围内，存在很少有基于观察的研究，这主要是由于数据的局限性。分析事件频率和级别的季节性揭示了整个网站上的相当大的变化，暗示了不同的主导地位的降雨量和/或与当地地形的相互作用。在评估气候变化对强大降雨事件的潜在影响时，这两个因素都是相关的。因此，根据激烈的降雨事件的特征，该组网站分为组（“北方集群”和“南方集群”）。对北方集群和南方集群发现的变化的性质存在强烈的极化。虽然北方集群的网站通常表现出事件频率的降低，但特别是在秋季和1小时和更长的持续时间;南部集群的网站体验事件频率的增加，特别是夏季和次小时持续时间。在历史记录中发现的非公平性有可能显着影响设计降雨估计。使用标准区域化技术的分位数估计数和代表实际应用的记录长度的定量估计表明，这种估计可能不代表长期条件，因此需要考虑替代方法，特别是在涉及短记录的地方。额外的降雨信息，特别是雷达数据，可用于对强烈降雨事件的深入空间分析。

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