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Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall - Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia

机译：每日和次日强降雨中的不平稳性-第2部分：澳大利亚东南部地区的区域评估

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Using data for a common period (1976-2005) for a set of 31 sites located in south-east Australia, variations in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. Analysis of seasonality in frequency and magnitude of events revealed considerable variation across the set of sites, implying different dominating rainfall-producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. Both these factors are relevant when assessing the potential effects of climate variations on intense rainfall events. The set of sites was therefore split into groups ("north cluster" and "south cluster") according to the characteristics of intense rainfall events. There is a strong polarisation in the nature of changes found for the north cluster and south cluster. While sites in the north cluster typically exhibit decrease in frequency of events, particularly in autumn and at durations of 1 h and longer; sites in the south cluster experience an increase in frequency of events, particularly for summer and sub-hourly durations. Non-stationarity found in historical records has the potential to significantly affect design rainfall estimates. An assessment of quantile estimates derived using a standard regionalisation technique and periods representative of record lengths available for practical applications show that such estimates may not be representative of long-term conditions, so alternative approaches need to be considered, particularly where short records are concerned. Additional rainfall information, in particular radar data, could be used for an in-depth spatial analysis of intense rainfall events.
机译：使用位于澳大利亚东南部的一组31个站点的共同时期（1976-2005年）的数据，评估了6分钟至72小时持续时间内强降雨事件的频率和强度变化。这项研究的动力是需要弄清气候变化如何影响强降雨和洪水泛滥的可能性。对于城市应用，次日持续时间特别受关注。在世界范围内，很少有这种基于观察的研究，这主要是由于数据的限制。 对事件发生的频率和强度的季节性分析表明，这些地点之间存在相当大的差异，这意味着不同的主要降雨产生机制和/或与当地地形的相互作用。在评估气候变化对强降雨事件的潜在影响时，这两个因素都是相关的。因此，根据强降雨事件的特征，将地点集分为几组（“北簇”和“南簇”）。在北群和南群的变化性质上存在强烈的两极分化。尽管北部集群的站点通常出现事件的频率降低，尤其是在秋季以及持续1小时或更长时间的情况下;南部集群中的站点发生事件的频率增加，尤其是在夏季和半小时以下的时段。 历史记录中发现的非平稳性可能会显着影响设计降雨估算。对使用标准区域化技术得出的分位数估计值的评估以及代表可用于实际应用的记录长度的期限表明，这种估计值可能无法代表长期条件，因此需要考虑替代方法，尤其是在涉及短记录的情况下。额外的降雨信息，尤其是雷达数据，可用于对强降雨事件进行深入的空间分析。

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