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A method for predicting the uncompleted climate transition process

机译：一种预测未完成的气候转换过程的方法

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Climate change is expressed as a climate system transiting from the initial state to a new state in a short time. The period between the initial state and the new state is defined as the transition process, which is the key part for connecting the two states. By using a piece-wise function, the transition process is stated approximately (Mudelsee, 2000). However, the dynamic processes are not included in the piece-wise function. Thus, we proposed a method (Yan et al., 2015, 2016) to fit the transition process by using a continuous function. In this paper, this method is further developed for predicting the uncompleted transition process based on the dynamic characteristics of the continuous function. We introduce this prediction method in detail and apply it to three ideal time sequences and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO is a long-lasting El Ni?o-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Barnett et al., 1999; Newman et al., 2016). A new quantitative relationship during the transition process has been revealed, and it explores a nonlinear relationship between the linear trend and the amplitude (difference) between the initial state and the end state. As the transition process begins, the initial state and the linear trend are estimated. Then, according to the relationship, the end state and end moment of the uncompleted transition process are predicted.
机译：气候变化表示为在短时间内从初始状态转移到新状态的气候系统。初始状态和新状态之间的时段被定义为转换过程，这是连接两个状态的关键部分。通过使用透明函数，大致向转换过程陈述（Mudelsee，2000）。然而，动态过程不包括在片段功能中。因此，我们提出了一种方法（Yan等，2015,2016）来使用连续功能来符合过渡过程。在本文中，进一步开发了该方法，用于基于连续功能的动态特性来预测未完成的过渡过程。我们详细介绍了这种预测方法，并将其应用于三个理想的时间序列和太平洋横向振荡（PDO）。 PDO是太平洋气候变异性的长持久的埃尔Ni？o样模式（Barnett等，1999; Newman等，2016）。已经揭示了过渡过程期间的新的定量关系，并且探讨了初始状态和最终状态之间的线性趋势和幅度（差异）之间的非线性关系。随着过渡过程开始，估计初始状态和线性趋势。然后，根据关系，预测未完成的转换过程的结束状态和结束时刻。

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