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Changes in growth caused by climate change and other limiting factors in time affect the optimal equilibrium of close-to-nature forest management

机译：气候变化引起的增长变化以及时间及时的其他限制因素会影响近乎自然森林管理的最佳均衡

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Historical radial increment data based on tree ring analyses from the close-to-nature experimental forest management unit Smoln?-cka Osada in Central Slovakia were used for retrospective modelling of changes in forest dynamics to estimate the sensitivity of management planning goals under climate change. Four example years representing historical periods with typically different species-specific patterns of radial increment in mixed beech-fir-spruce forest (1910, 1950, 1980, and 2014) served as virtual starting points for the modelling. An advanced density-dependent matrix transition model was utilised for modelling stand dynamics. An integrated tool for nonlinear financial optimisation searched for an optimal management equilibrium. In addition to transition probabilities adjusted from increment data, some assumptions for changes in ingrowth and mortality related to the increment, as well as a case study concerning the reduced ingrowth changed by game browsing intensity, were tested for modelling more realistic historical ecological conditions. The sensitivity study revealed changes in the optimal management equilibrium represented by optimal basal area, tree species composition, diameter distribution and target harvest diameter over time due to the adapted ecological modelling. The main lesson of the past for the future is to avoid placing too much trust in the simple extrapolation of current trends, such as the observed continual decline in spruce related to climate change, but to be aware of temporal and possibly reversible processes, such as the observed extensive fir recovery after the reduction of air pollution. Tree species diversity appears to be the best option for the uncertain future.
机译：基于树环的历史径向增量数据从自然近乎自然的实验森林管理单元Smoln？-Cacka Osada在中央斯洛伐克中，用于回顾森林动力学变化的追溯建模，以估算气候变化下管理计划目标的敏感性。在混合山毛榉 - 冷杉 - 云杉林（1910,1950,1980和2014）中表示具有典型不同物种特异性模式的历史时期的四个例子，其径向增量的径向增量的历史时期（1910,950,980和2014）作为建模的虚拟起点。使用高级密度相关的矩阵转换模型用于建模待机动态。非线性财务优化的集成工具，用于最优管理均衡。除了从增量数据调整的过渡概率之外，测试了与增量相关的发起和死亡率的变化的一些假设，以及关于通过游戏浏览强度改变的传统变化的减少的案例研究，以建模更现实的历史生态条件。灵敏度研究揭示了最佳基础区域，树种组成，直径分布和目标收获直径所示的最佳管理均衡的变化，随着适应的生态学建模而随着时间的推移。未来的主要教训是避免在目前趋势的简单外推中避免过多的信任，例如观察到云杉与气候变化相关的持续下降，但要意识到时间和可能是可逆的过程，如在减少空气污染后，观察到的广泛的冷杉恢复。树种多样性似乎是不确定未来的最佳选择。

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