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首页> 外文期刊>SOLA: Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere >The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming
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The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming

机译：2018年7月，日本的高温活动没有人为诱导的全球变暖就无法发生

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摘要

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
机译：2018年7月的高温赛事导致日本历史记录破坏人类伤害。具有高分辨率大气通用循环模式的大集合历史模拟表明，2018年7月在外部强制条件下发生了这一事件的发生率约为20％。这种高概率是2018年7月上层对流层中高压系统的结果。事件归因方法基于具有和没有人类诱发的气候变化的大集合模拟表明以下内容：（1）没有人为全球变暖永远不会发生事件。 （2）双层高压系统的强度也处于极端水平，并且事件概率的水平至少翻了一下，这与全球变暖无关。此外，一套大型集合动态较低的输出显示，日本的平均年炎的平均年度发生在全球预热水平为2°C以上的预工业水平下降1.8倍。

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