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首页> 外文期刊>PLoS Medicine >Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study
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Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study

机译：葡萄牙糖加糖饮料对不同年龄组肥胖发病率的预计影响：建模研究

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Background Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal. Methods and findings We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014–2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015–2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40–78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to 18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases—despite our efforts to mitigate them—related to the methodological differences between these sources. Conclusions The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population.
机译：背景，糖的过度消耗具有与肥胖的完善的联系。初步结果表明，2017年葡萄牙政府的糖加饮料（SSBS）征收了税收导致这些产品的销售和重新制定。这项研究模型对SSB征税引发的市场变化的影响对葡萄牙各个年龄群体的肥胖发病率进行了肥胖发病率。方法和调查结果我们通过葡萄牙语饮料（Globaldata和Nielsen消费者小组），来自国家调查的膳食数据（IAN-）的葡萄牙语协会，我们对2014 - 2018年的市场数据进行了全国市场分析和人口范围的建模研究。 AF 2015-2016），以及来自几个队列研究的肥胖发病率数据。通过将所有SSB的能量含量（KCAL / GRAM）除以总食用（以克）来计算来自SSBS的膳食能量密度。我们利用潜在的冲击分数（PIF）方程来模拟脂肪消耗脂肪消耗的预计影响，通过减少和重构。结果表明，每年销售660万升的SSBS。产品重构导致SSBS的平均能量密度降低3.1千卡/ 100毫升。据估计，2016年至2018年间预防左右40-78例肥胖案件，在青少年10至<18岁时观察到最大的预计影响。该模型表明，该税收的实施允许对肥胖的投影影响较大，而不是单独进行重构。本研究的主要限制是我们使用的模型包括来自各种来源的数据，这可能导致偏见 - 尽管我们努力减轻与这些来源之间的方法论差异有关。结论税收引发了需求减少和产品重构。这些，可以减少SSB的频繁消费者之间的肥胖水平。此类税收是有效的人口范围内的干预。单独的重新制定，未降低销售额，对葡萄牙人群体的肥胖发病率较小。

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