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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences >Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data
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Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

机译：基于CMIP5数据的黄河流域未来流出气候变化潜在影响

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The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25°??×??0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10?% during the period of 2021–2050, compared to the base period of 1961–1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.
机译：黄河流域（YRB）是中国北方最大的河流流域，多年来遭受了水资源稀缺和干旱危害。因此，评估气候变化对本盆地未来流出流出的潜在影响对于本地政策和粮食安全规划非常重要。在本研究中，基于YRB中的101个气象站的观察，等距CDF匹配（EDCDFM）统计缩小方法应用于来自耦合模型的五个排放场景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）的八种气候模型互通项目（CMIP5）。具有0.25°的可变渗透能力（VIC）模型，基于缩小字段开发0.25°的空间分辨率，用于在YRB上将未来的流出模拟流流。结果表明，随着全球变暖趋势，在2021 - 2015年期间，年度流流量将减少约10倍，与YRB中的1961-1990基本期相比。应该有适当的水资源计划，以满足群体日益增长的人口和未来气候变化的需求。

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