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首页> 外文期刊>International journal of ecohydrology and hydrobiology >Future climate change impacts on streamflow and nitrogen exports based on CMIP5 projection in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China
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Future climate change impacts on streamflow and nitrogen exports based on CMIP5 projection in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China

机译：未来的气候变化对基于CMIP5投影的流水流和氮气出口影响，中国宫水库盆地

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The projection of streamflow and nutrient exports are essential for future water resource and environmental management plans under climate change. This study investigated the responses of streamflow and total nitrogen (TN) loading to future climate scenarios in the Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB) by coupling a physical process-based hydrologic and water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Model (SWAT) and 42 statistical downscaled climate projections on the basis of CMIP5 models. Future climatic projections during the two future periods (2021-2035 and 2051-2065) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, primarily precipitation and temperature, were used to drive the calibrated SWAT model. Results show that the MRB would be warmer and more humid. The ensemble mean changes in average annual precipitation (mean temperature) are expected to be more than 5.4% (0.6 degrees C) during the period of 2021-2035 and 12.5% (1.6 degrees C) during 2051-2065. Future streamflow and TN loading projection are expected to increase in two future periods. Meanwhile, the changes in streamflow and TN loading would be higher in summer than in other seasons. The uncertainty ranges in TN loading projection is larger than that in streamflow projection. The probability that streamflow and TN loading increase would be higher in the period of 2021-2035 than in 2051-2065. This study could be of use for providing an insight into the availability of future streamflow and pollution control for the MRB. (C) 2018 European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：流出流出和营养出口的投影对于气候变化下的未来水资源和环境管理计划至关重要。本研究通过耦合基于物理过程的水文和水质模型，土壤和水评估模型（SWAT）和42个统计，调查了MIYUN水库盆地（MRB）中的流流量和总氮气（TN）加载到未来气候情景的反应基于CMIP5型号的较低的气候预测。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5发射方案下，在未来的两个期间（2021-2035和2051-2065）中的未来气候预测用于驱动校准的SWAT模型。结果表明，MRB将是更温暖的，更加潮湿。在2021-2035和12.5％（1.6摄氏度）期间，平均年降水量（平均温度）平均年降水量（平均温度）的变化预计在2051-2065期间，预计将大于5.4％（0.6℃）。预计未来的流流程和TN装载投影将增加两个未来时期。同时，夏季流出和TN负载的变化比其他季节更高。 TN加载投影中的不确定性范围大于流流投影中的不确定性范围。流出和TN加载增加的概率在2021-2035期间比2051-2065期更高。本研究可以用于了解对MRB的未来流流和污染控制的可用性的见解。 （c）2018欧洲区域地区生态学科学中心的波兰科学院。 elsevier b.v出版。保留所有权利。

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