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Informal Economy and Financial Development in West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries (WAEMU): Role of Institutions

机译:西非经济和货币联盟国家(WAEMU)的非正式经济与金融发展:机构的作用

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Informal economy is highly developed in sub-Saharan African countries, particularly, in West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries (WAEMU). In fact, the size of informal economy has been around 50% of GDP in recent years, despite the efforts made by international institutions (IMF and the African Union (AU)) to contain its development. It should be noted that informality increase has consequences on economy. On the one hand, a thriving informal economy can cause serious difficulties for policymakers because official indicators on unemployment, labor force, income, and consumption are unreliable. A policy based on wrong official indicators may be ineffective or even worse. On the other hand, a large amount of informality is found to be detrimental to economic growth. Notwithstanding these facts, this large size of informality is accompanied by a financial sector that is struggling to develop, despite the various efforts of the authorities in charge of this sector. Added to this is the low quality of public institutions in these countries. Based on these facts, the aims of this research is to analyze the effect of financial development on the development of informality, but also the non-linear relationship between informal economy, financial development and the quality of institutions, in of the West African Economic and Monetary Union countries (WAEMU), over period of 1991 to 2017. For this purpose, pooled mean group (PMG) model is used to analyze the effect of financial development on the informal economy. And for the non-linear analysis, threshold model specification (Panel Threshold Regression: PTR) is used. The results show that for financial development to contribute to reducing the size of the informal economy, the quality of institutions must reach a threshold of 0.575 on a scale of 0 to 1. It also shows that real GDP per capita and education attainment have a negative effect on informality. On the other hand, the unemployment rate, the rate of urbanization and the share of agriculture in GDP have a positive effect on informality.
机译:非洲撒哈拉非洲国家高度发达的非正式经济,特别是在西非经济和货币联盟国家(WAEMU)。事实上,尽管国际机构(国际货币基金组织和非洲联盟(AU))遏制其发展,但近年来非正式经济的规模占GDP的50%。应该指出的是,非正式增加对经济影响。一方面,蓬勃发展的非正式经济可能对政策制定者造成严重困难,因为失业,劳动力,收入和消费的官方指标是不可靠的。基于错误官方指标的政策可能是无效的甚至更糟。另一方面,发现大量的非正式性对经济增长不利。尽管有这些事实,但尽管该部门当局各机构努力,但这一大小的非正式性是伴随着努力发展的金融部门。添加到这是这些国家的低级公共机构。基于这些事实,本研究的目的是分析金融发展对非正式性发展的影响,也是非正式经济,金融发展与机构质量之间的非线性关系,在西非经济和20世纪1年至2017年的货币联盟国家(WAEMU)。为此目的,合并平均小组(PMG)模型用于分析金融发展对非正规经济的影响。对于非线性分析,使用阈值模型规范(面板阈值回归:PTR)。结果表明,对于财务发展,为减少非正规经济规模的贡献,机构的质量必须达到0.575的阈值0至1。它还表明,人均GDP和教育程度有一个负面对非正式性的影响。另一方面,失业率,城市化率和农业的份额在国内生产总值上对非正式性产生了积极影响。

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