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Analysis of Causality between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Computational Econometrics

机译：基于计算经济学的旅游与经济增长的因果关系分析

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—To investigate the causal relationship between China’s domestic tourism and economic growth, this paper performs co-integration analysis and Granger causality test by making use of annual time series data from 1984 to 2009. Co-integration analysis indicates that there are long-term and stable equilibrium relationships between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth. The results from the ECM model indicate that there are short-term disequilibrium relationship between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth. An adjustment mechanism from short term to long term in the relationship between the development of China’s domestic tourism and economic growth can be found in the ECM model. In addition, bidirectional Granger causality between China’s domestic tourism and economic growth is demonstrated. The development of China’s domestic tourism is the Granger cause of economic growth, China’s economic growth is the Granger cause of development of domestic tourism as well. Our findings imply that China may enhance its economic growth by strategically strengthening the tourism industry while not neglecting the other sectors which also promote growth.
机译：- 调查中国国内旅游和经济增长之间的因果关系，本文通过利用1984年至2009年的年度序列数据进行共同整合分析和格兰杰因果关系。共集成分析表明有长期和中国国内旅游业发展与经济增长的稳定均衡关系。 ECM模型的结果表明，中国国内旅游和经济增长的发展之间存在短期不平衡关系。在ECM模型中可以在中国国内旅游和经济增长的发展中短期到长期长期调整机制。此外，还证明了中国国内旅游和经济增长之间的双向格兰杰因果关系。中国国内旅游的发展是经济增长的格兰杰的经济增长原因，中国的经济增长是国内旅游发展的格兰杰。我们的研究结果暗示，中国可以通过战略性地加强旅游业的经济增长，同时不会忽视其他也促进增长的其他部门。

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