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Assessing economic development through trade relations and educational markets integration (the case of Vietnam within ACFTA)

机译：通过贸易关系和教育市场的整合评估经济发展（ACFTA中越南的案例）

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摘要

This paper applies the gravity model of trade with panel database to assess the impact of ACFTA on the export and import of ACFTA’s members from 2001 to 2018. The database was taken from World Bank Database, International Trade Center and CEPII Research and Expertise on The World Economy. The estimation results review that ACFTA has positive trade creation and trade diversion effect on the export of all ACFTA’s members including Vietnam, ACFTA does play a pivotal role in the intra – regional export and extra – regional export of Vietnam and other ACFTA’s members. Furthermore, within the scope of the paper, compared to other FTA of ASEAN, the magnitude of trade creation of ACFTA is considerably large. This is consistent with the fact that China is gradually becoming a fundamental trade partner with ASEAN and Vietnam in particular. Contrary to the positive effect of ACFTA on members’ export, the estimation results show that ACFTA is causing negative trade diversion effect on the import of ASEAN members within ACFTA including Vietnam. This is in line with the fact that ASEAN and Vietnam in particular have been running trade deficit with China since 2010 at the expense of import from other trading partners, and the trade deficit has been increasing since ACFTA came into full effect.
机译：本文适用于与面板数据库的贸易重力模型评估ACFTA对2001年至2018年ACFTA成员出口和进口的影响。数据库是从世界银行数据库，国际贸易中心和CEPII研究和世界专业知识中获取的经济。估计结果审查，ACFTA对所有ACFTA成员的出口有积极的贸易创造和贸易转移效应，ACFTA在越南和其他ACFTA的越南的区域内出口和额外区域出口中发挥了关键作用。此外，在本文的范围内，与东盟其他自由植物体相比，ACFTA的贸易创造的程度相当大。这与中国正在逐步成为与东盟和越南的基本贸易伙伴的事实一致。与ACFTA对成员出口的积极影响相反，估算结果表明，ACFTA对ASEAN成员在包括越南的ACFTA内部导致负面贸易转移效应。这符合东盟和越南特别是自2010年以来一直在与中国运行贸易逆差，以牺牲其他贸易伙伴的进口，由于ACFTA完全效益，贸易逆差已经增加。

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