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Interest and Growth

机译：兴趣和增长

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This paper considers the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. In general, the relationship is not monotonic; there is a tension between two opposing effects: a higher growth rate diluting capital that has already been accumulated, and the ability of a growing population to generate its own wealth. The strengths of these effects depend on the population structure and the time horizon for each generation to accumulate wealth. This type of analysis has been conducted within a natural Overlapping Generations framework. However, an explicit assumption is needed to allow a comparatively static analysis of levels of population growth and capital accumulation. That assumption is effectively the requirement for each generation to be self supporting in terms of its consumption and contribution to production. We show that this assumption can be justified in theory by a form of economic efficiency with respect to population changes, referred to as demographic efficiency. This analysis is also conducted within the Overlapping Generations model of modern economics. An interesting aspect is the structure of “steady state” economies, that is where each consumer is identical to any other through time. With simple examples and assumptions, this paper demonstrates that a given interest rate can support more than one population growth rate (unlike Samuelson’s golden rule, where these rates are equal). The ramifications for non steady state economies are accordingly more complex
机译：本文考虑了人口增长与资本积累之间的关系。一般来说，这种关系不是单调;两个相反的影响之间存在紧张局势：已经积累的更高的增长速度稀释资本，以及不断增长的人口产生自己财富的能力。这些效果的优势取决于人口结构和各一代人的时间范围积累财富。这种类型的分析已经在自然重叠的几代框架内进行。但是，需要明确的假设来允许对人口增长和资本积累水平进行比较静态分析。这种假设有效地要求各一代人在其消费和生产贡献方面是自我支持的。我们表明，这一假设可以理论上通过一系列经济效率相对于人口变化，称为人口效率。该分析也在重叠的几代人的现代经济模型中进行。一个有趣的方面是“稳态”经济体的结构，即每个消费者通过时间与其他时间相同的地方。通过简单的示例和假设，本文表明，给定的利率可以支持多种人口增长率（与萨缪尔森的黄金法则不同，这些率为相等）。因此，非稳态经济的后果更复杂

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