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Dynamical Variations of the Global COVID‐19 Pandemic Based on a SEICR Disease Model: A New Approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu

机译：基于SEICR疾病模型的全球Covid-19大流行的动态变化：易花杰mu的一种新方法

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The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID‐19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID‐19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID‐19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1–2?years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID‐19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID‐19. The role of the climate on the COVID‐19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non‐pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic. Plain Language Summary In this work, global COVID‐19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact over five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, cold, and polar. A new approach is proposed to obtain the infection rates based on the COVID‐19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID‐19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1–2?years. Moreover, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID‐19. Key Points A new approached is proposed to predict the future COVID‐19 variations rather than relying on information on other corona viruses COVID‐19 pandemic will persist in multiple periods of 1–2?years The temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions
机译：2019年正在进行的冠状病毒疾病（Covid-19）大流行引起了超过1.5亿案件的感染案例，并对全球公共卫生构成严重威胁。在这项研究中，全球Covid-19数据用于检查来自五个气候区域的84个国家的免疫力和联系的动态变化：热带，干旱，温带和冷。提出了一种名叫易花杰MU的新方法，以获得基于北半球和南半球相同气候区的Covid-19数据的Covid-19数据。我们的研究结果表明，Covid-19大流行将在很长一段时间内持续或在1-2岁的多个时期进行定期流通。此外，基于Covid-19数据的模拟结果，发现温带和冷气候区具有比热带和干旱的气候区域更高的感染率，这表明气候可以调节Covid-19的传动。应当缔结气候对Covid-19变异的作用，以更多的数据和更多的注意事项。非制药干预措施仍在对控制和预防这一全球大流行的关键作用。普通语言摘要在这项工作中，全球CoVID-19数据用于检查免疫视角和接触五个气候区域的动态变化：热带，干旱，温带，冷和极性。提出了一种新的方法，以根据北半球和南半球在北半球与南半球相同的气候区之间的Covid-19数据获得感染率。我们的研究结果表明，Covid-19大流行将在很长一段时间内持续或在1-2岁的多个时期进行定期流通。此外，发现温带和寒冷的气候区具有比热带和干旱的气候区域更高的感染率，这表明气候可以调节Covid-19的传播。建议将一个新的接近预测未来的Covid-19变异，而不是依赖于其他电晕病毒的信息Covid-19大流行将在1-2的多个时期持续存在，温带和寒冷的气候区的感染率更高热带和干旱的气候区

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