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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers in Public Health >Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam
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Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam

机译：数学建模预测，需要严格的社会疏远措施来缩短越南Covid-19感染的持续时间

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in 2019, has spread throughout the world and has since then been declared a pandemic. As a result, COVID-19 has caused a major threat to global public health. In this paper, we use mathematical modeling to analyze the reported data of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. To achieve this, two models are used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The first model belongs to the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type and is used to compute the basic reproduction number. The second model adopts a multi-scale approach which explicitly integrates the movement of each individual. Numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19 in urban areas of Vietnam. Both models show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Whereas, more strict measures would lead to the containment of each epidemic wave in one and a half months.
机译：2019年冠状病毒疾病2019年（Covid-19）在中国武汉出现在2019年，遍布全世界，从那时起宣布了大流行。因此，Covid-19对全球公共卫生产生了重大威胁。在本文中，我们使用数学建模来分析越南Covid-19案件的报告数据，研究了非药剂干预的影响。为此，使用两种型号来描述Covid-19的传输动态。第一模型属于敏感暴露的暴露恢复（SEIR）类型，用于计算基本再现数。第二种模型采用多种方法，该方法明确地整合了每个人的运动。进行了数值模拟，以量化社会疏散措施对越南城市地区Covid-19传播的影响。两种模型都表明，采用放松的社会疏远措施减少了受感染病例的数量，但不会缩短流行性波浪的持续时间。虽然，更严格的措施将导致每一个月和半个月内的疫情遏制。

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