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首页> 外文期刊>Journal for Labour Market Research >A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany
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A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany

机译：关于德国社会保障捐款的新播种就业指标

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摘要

Contrary to the number of unemployed or vacancies, the number of employees subject to social security contributions (SSC) for Germany is published after a time lag of 2 months. Furthermore, there is a waiting period of 6 months until the values are not revised any more. This paper uses monthly data on the number of people subject to compulsory health insurance (CHI) as auxiliary variable to better nowcast SSC. Statistical evaluation tests using real-time data show that CHI significantly improves nowcast accuracy compared to purely autoregressive benchmark models. The mean squared prediction error for nowcasts of SSC can be reduced by approximately 20%. In addition, CHI outperforms alternative candidate variables such as unemployment, vacancies and industrial production.
机译：与失业者或空缺数量相反，德国社会保障捐款（SSC）的员工人数在2个月的时间滞后发表。 此外，等候时间为6个月，直到价值不再修改。 本文使用对辅助变量的强制性健康保险（CHI）的人数上的每月数据来更好地实现助剂。 与纯粹自回归基准模型相比，统计评估测试表明，与纯粹的自回归基准模型相比，CHI显着提高了截然不同的准确性。 现在，SSC的均比预测误差可以减少约20％。 此外，CHI优于替代候选变量，如失业，职位空缺和工业生产。

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