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Modelling speed behaviour in rural highways: Safety analysis of driving under adverse road-weather conditions

机译:农村高速公路建模速度行为:不良道路天气条件下驾驶安全分析

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This study proposes a methodical approach to model desired speed distributions under different road-weather and traffic conditions followed by identification of road-weather conditions with potentially higher safety risks in rural divided highways located in extremely cold regions. Desired speed distributions encompassing unique combinations of adverse road-weather and traffic conditions are modelled as normal distributions characterized by their means and standard deviations formulated based on two principal statistical theorems and techniques i.e., Central Limit Theorem and Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation. Combination of the precipitation conditions, road surface conditions, time of the day, temperature, traffic flow and the heavy vehicle percentage at the time of travel were considered in defining the combinations of road-weather and traffic conditions. The findings reveal that simultaneous occurrence of particular precipitation and pavement conditions significantly affect the characteristics of the desired speed distribution and potentially expose drivers to elevated safety risks. Jurisdictions experiencing extreme road-weather conditions may adapt the proposed methodology to assess speed behaviour under different road-weather conditions to establishing and deploying weather-responsive traffic management strategies such as variable speed limit to regulate speeding and improve traffic safety in winter.
机译:本研究提出了一种在不同的道路天气和交通条件下模拟所需速度分布的方法方法,然后识别在极冷地区的农村分开的高速公路中具有潜在更高的安全风险。包含不良道路天气和交通条件的独特组合的所需速度分布被建模为具有基于两个主要统计定理和技术的手段和标准偏差的正常分布,即中央限制定理和最小方差无偏见估计。在定义道路天气和交通条件的组合时,考虑了降水条件,道路表面条件,一天的路面条件,温度,交通流量和重型车辆百分比。结果表明,特定沉淀和路面条件的同时发生显着影响所需速度分布的特性,并可能暴露驾驶员升高的安全风险。司法管辖区经历极端的道路天气条件可能适应所提出的方法,以评估不同的道路天气条件下的速度行为,以建立和部署天气响应的交通管理策略,例如可变速度限制,以调节冬季的超速加速和改善交通安全。

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