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首页> 外文期刊>PLoS One >Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates
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Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

机译：保护区网络不足以保护一个批判性的东非的Chelonian：煎饼龟的建模分布，Malacochersus Tornieri在当前和未来的气候下

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While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise ( Malacochersus tornieri ), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km 2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60–401,179.70 km 2 . The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.
机译：虽然国际宠物贸易和栖息地破坏被广泛讨论了煎饼龟生存（Malacochersus Tornieri）的主要威胁，但气候变化对物种的影响仍然不明。在这项研究中，我们使用物种分布模型预测Zambezian和索马里生物地区煎饼龟的当前和未来分布。我们使用了从坦桑尼亚，肯尼亚和赞比亚获得的224只煎饼龟事件，以估算这些地区所有国家的煎饼龟的合适稳定的地区。我们还使用受保护的区域网络来评估有多少合适且稳定的区域受到保护，以保护这种危及濒危物种。我们的模式预测了四个国家的煎饼龟的气候合适的栖息地扩展，未来总面积为90,668.75公里，面积为343,459.60-401,179.70公里2。该模型还表明，对物种的气候合适栖息地的更重要领域在于野生动物保护区。根据我们的结果，我们可以预测煎饼龟可能不会遭受栖息地收缩。但是，这些物种将继续存在国际宠物贸易的风险，因为大多数所确定的合适栖息地仍然是保护区之外。我们建议保护煎饼龟的努力不仅要关注保护区，而且还不应在预测未来的气候变化之后提供大部分合适稳定的栖息地。

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