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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK
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Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK

机译：评估改善水资源管理的季节性水文预报的价值：英国试点应用中的洞察力

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Improved skill of long-range weather forecasts has motivated an increasing effort towards developing seasonal hydrological forecasting systems across Europe. Among other purposes, such forecasting systems are expected to support better water management decisions. In this paper we evaluate the potential use of a real-time optimization system (RTOS) informed by seasonal forecasts in a water supply system in the UK. For this purpose, we simulate the performances of the RTOS fed by ECMWF seasonal forecasting systems (SEAS5) over the past 10 years, and we compare them to a benchmark operation that mimics the common practices for reservoir operation in the UK. We also attempt to link the improvement of system performances, i.e. the forecast value, to the forecast skill (measured by the mean error and the continuous ranked probability skill score) as well as to the bias correction of the meteorological forcing, the decision maker priorities, the hydrological conditions and the forecast ensemble size. We find that in particular the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions exert a strong influence on the forecast skill–value relationship. For the (realistic) scenario where the decision maker prioritizes the water resource availability over energy cost reductions, we identify clear operational benefits from using seasonal forecasts, provided that forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered by optimizing against an ensemble of 25 equiprobable forecasts. These operational benefits are also observed when the ensemble size is reduced up to a certain limit. However, when comparing the use of ECMWF-SEAS5 products to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP), which is more easily derived from historical weather data, we find that ESP remains a hard-to-beat reference, not only in terms of skill but also in terms of value.
机译：改进的远程天气预报技能有动力促进跨越欧洲季节性水文预报系统的努力。在其他目的之外，预计这种预测系统将支持更好的水管理决策。在本文中，我们评估了英国供水系统中季节性预测信息的实时优化系统（RTOS）的潜在使用。为此目的，我们在过去10年中模拟了ECMWF季节性预测系统（SEAS5）喂养的RTOS的性能，并将它们与基准操作进行比较，以模仿英国的储层运营的常见实践。我们还尝试将系统性能的改进，即预测值联系起来，预测技能（通过平均误差和连续排名概率技能评分测量）以及气象迫使的偏差，决策者优先事项，水文条件和预测集合尺寸。我们发现，特别是决策者优先事项和水文条件对预测技能关系的强烈影响力。对于（现实）方案，决策者优先考虑水资源减少的水资源降低，我们从使用季节性预测中确定了明确的运营效益，只要通过优化25个Quiprobable预测的集合来明确考虑预测不确定性。当集合尺寸减少到一定限度时，也观察到这些操作效益。但是，在比较ECMWF-SEAT5产品的使用到集合流流程预测（ESP）时，这更容易来自历史天气数据，我们发现ESP仍然是一个难以击败的参考，而不仅仅是技能而且在价值方面。

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