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首页> 外文期刊>JMIR public health and surveillance. >Firearm Surveillance Informs Gun Control Policy: Regression Lines of Discontinuity
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Firearm Surveillance Informs Gun Control Policy: Regression Lines of Discontinuity

机译：枪支监督通知枪控制政策：中断的回归线

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BACKGROUND:Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. While there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, exactly which policies that entails varies, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large capacity magazines.OBJECTIVE:To determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place.METHODS:We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of four or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB which included a prohibition on large capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the five-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general; introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend, for years coincident with the federal legislation, i.e. 1994-2004, and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of the termination of the policy. We use regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place.RESULTS:The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people.CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that assault weapon bans and/or large capacity magazine bans work.CLINICALTRIAL:Not Applicable.
机译：背景：公共群众枪击事件是一个重要的公共卫生问题，需要持续系统监测来测试和告知打击枪支伤害的政策。虽然存在广泛的协议，但需要进行某些事情来阻止公共群众枪击事件，究竟需要哪些需要变化的政策，例如禁止突击武器和大容量杂志。目的：确定联邦突击武器禁令（FAWB）（FAWB）（ 1994-2004）在其到位时减少了公共群众枪击事件的数量。方法：我们从一个事件期间提取了从暴力项目中提取了与我们在公共空间中的四个或更多死亡人数的纳入标准相匹配的公众射击监测数据。我们进行了回归不连续性分析，利用FAWB的施加，除了突击武器之外还包括大容量杂志的禁止。我们估计了1966年至2019年期间每年五年搬家公众枪击率的五年迁移平均股票数量的回归模型，控制人口增长和凶杀案;在拦截和时间趋势中引入了回归不连续性，与联邦立法相一致，即1994 - 2004年，并在此期间允许杀人率的差异效果。我们介绍了第二组趋势和拦截后截止日期，以捕捉政策终止的影响。我们使用回归结果预测从1995年到2019年发生的事情已经没有fawb，并且还有一个人在2005年开始发生的事情，因此它仍然存在。结果：FAWB导致公共群众枪击事件显着下降，枪死亡人数和枪支伤害的数量。我们估计FAWB在十年内阻止了11个公共群众枪击事件。延续的FAWB将阻止30个公共群众枪击事件，杀死339人并额外受伤了1139人。结论：本研究表明公共卫生监测对枪支暴力的效用。监督通知政策关于是否禁止攻击武器和高容量杂志减少了公众群众枪击。随着社会搜查有效政策来防止下一个大规模射击，我们必须考虑攻击武器禁令和/或大容量杂志禁令工作的压倒性证据.ClinicTrial：不适用。

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