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首页> 外文期刊>JMIR public health and surveillance. >European SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analyses of Wave Two
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European SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analyses of Wave Two

机译：欧洲SARS-COV-2监视：波波的纵向趋势分析

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BACKGROUND:The COVID-19 global pandemic has severely impacted Western Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country in Spring 2020. The varying severity of the pandemic is explained by differences in prevention efforts in the form of public health policy, adherence to those guidelines, as well as socio-cultural, climate, and population characteristics. The second wave of the COVID-19 is currently breaching the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders, however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence in the transmission of COVID-19.OBJECTIVE:The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for shifts in the pandemic, week over week, speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed and provides novel metrics to measure the transmission of disease.METHODS:Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.RESULTS:New European cases slightly decreased from 158,741 to 152,064 from the week of 01/04-01/10 (week 1) to the week of 01/11-01/17 (week 2), and cumulative cases only increased from 22,507,271 to 23,890,761 with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 to January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK have the largest 7-day moving averages for new infections at 18,269, 20,787, 17,292, 17,442 and 59,809 respectively during the week of 01/4-01/10, but do not necessarily have positive speed, acceleration, jerk and persistance during the same time period. During week two, Jan 11-17, 7-day moving averages increased to 18,318 and 28,829 for France and Spain respectively. The infection rate per 100,000 people during the week of Jan 4-10 was highest in Ireland and the UK at 139.5 and 81.06, respectively. The Czech Republic, Portugal and Lituania have the next highest rates at 78.90, 73.59, and 54.81 all per 100,000 population. The top five countries by infection rate in week two were Portugal at 101.85, Ireland at 59.66, Andorra at 58.24, France at 57.31 and UK at 56.94. From the week of 01/04-1/10 to the week of 01/11-01/17, Europe's speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000). Speed was largest and decreasing in Ireland (132.29 to 72.66), Czech Republic (120.97 to 77.36), and Slovenia (97.54 to 67.64) during both weeks. Acceleration was highest in Portugal and Ireland in the week of 01/04-01/10 at 5.77 and 5.57 in addition to Slovakia at 4.59.CONCLUSIONS:These dynamic data suggest that the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached European borders, but that virus transmission is decreasing in some countries. However, the UK, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in the transmission of COVID-19. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in caseload of COVID-19 between January 4 and January 17. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite descreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate during the second week was larger than the first week. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.
机译：背景：Covid-19全球大流行严重影响了西欧，导致了2020年春季国家各国多种多样的陆地装载和死亡。大流行的不同严重程度被公共卫生政策的形式差异解释，坚持这些指导方针，以及社会文化，气候和人口特征。 Covid-19的第二波目前正在违反欧洲边界。公共卫生监督是为了告知政策和指导领导者，然而，现有监测解释了过去传播掩盖了大流行的转变，感染率增加，以及Covid-19传输的持久性。目的：本研究的目标是为Covid-19传输提供高级监控指标，该传输占大流行，周周，速度，加速，混蛋和持久性的转变，更好地了解爆炸性增长的国家风险以及成功管理大流行的人。现有监测与我们的动态度量传输相结合，将为健康政策提供信息，以控制Covid-19大流行，直到开发有效的疫苗并提供衡量疾病传播的新颖度量。方法：使用纵向趋势分析研究设计，我们提取了62个公共卫生登记处的Covid数据日。我们使用经验差异方程来测量欧洲的每日案件数量，作为先前数量的情况，测试水平和基于使用普遍的时刻方法估计的动态面板模型（ GMM）通过实施r.Results的阿勒拉诺键估计，新欧洲案例从158,741到152,064略微下降到01/04-01 / 10（第1周）到01/11-01 / 17周的一周（第2周），累积案例从22,507,271到23,890,761增加到1月10日至1月17日之间的每周增加1,383,490.法国，德国，意大利，西班牙和英国在18,269年的新感染最大的7天移动平均值。在01/4-01 / 10周内分别为20,787,17,292,17,442和59,809，但在同一时间段内，不一定具有正速度，加速，混蛋和持久性。在第2期，1月11日至17日，7天的移动平均分别增加到法国和西班牙的18,318和28,829岁。 1月4日至10日的每10万人的感染率分别在139.5和81.06分别在爱尔兰和英国最高。捷克共和国，葡萄牙和路易叶，每10万人口的78.90,73.59和54.81都拥有下一个最高率。前五个国家在第两周的感染率为葡萄牙，位于101.85，爱尔兰59.66，安道尔58.24，法国57.31和英国，56.94。从01 / 04-1 / 10至01 / 11-01 / 17周的一周，欧洲的速度下降（每10万至33.02〜33.02，加速下降（每101,01,0100.16），杰克增加（ - 1.30至每10万人1.37）。速度最大，在爱尔兰（132.29至72.66），捷克共和国（120.97至77.36）和斯洛文尼亚（97.54至67.64）的速度最大，两周内。葡萄牙和爱尔兰的加速度是5.77和5.57的葡萄牙和爱尔兰，除了4.59的斯洛伐克之外，这些动态数据表明，这些动态数据表明，Covid-19大流行的第二波遭遇了欧洲边界，但这种病毒传播在一些国家正在减少。然而，特别是英国，西班牙和葡萄牙，特别是在Covid-19传播中迅速扩张的风险。对欧洲地区的审查表明，1月4日至1月17日在1月4日至1月17日之间的Covid-19案件减少了。不幸的是，Jerk的速度是欧洲在月初的负面，反转课程并成为积极的，尽管速度和加速度有所了解。最后，第二周的7天持续率大于第一周。这些措施表明，大流行的第二波可能会被居住，但有些国家仍然有冒着新爆发的风险，并且在没有快速政策反应的情况下增加传播。

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