HOW AN OUTBREAK SPREADS

EMMA BRYCE

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HOW AN OUTBREAK SPREADS

机译：如何突飞猛进

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After SARS broke out in China in 2002, it reached 29 countries in seven months. Air travel is a major reason why such infectious diseases spread throughout the globe so quickly. And yet even with such examples to study, scientists have had no way to precisely predict how the next infectious disease might spread through the nexus of world air terminals-until now. In 2010 MIT engineer Ruben Juanes set out to model the movement of a pathogen from a single site of departure to junctions worldwide. If he could predict the flow of disease from a given airport and rank the most contagious ones, government officials could more effectively predict outbreaks and issue lifesaving warnings and vaccines. So Juanes and his team used a computer simulation to seed 40 major U.S. airports with virtual infected travelers.

机译：自2002年在中国爆发SARS之后，它在七个月内到达了29个国家。乘飞机旅行是这种传染性疾病如此迅速传播到全球的主要原因。然而，即使有这样的例子进行研究，科学家们仍无法准确地预测到下一个传染病将如何通过世界航空终端的联系扩散。麻省理工学院的工程师鲁本·胡安斯（Ruben Juanes）于2010年着手模拟病原体从单一出发地点到全球交界处的运动。如果他能预测给定机场的疾病流向并确定传染性最强的机场，则政府官员可以更有效地预测疫情并发出挽救生命的警告和疫苗。因此，胡安斯（Juanes）和他的团队使用计算机仿真为美国40个主要机场的虚拟受感染旅客提供了种子。

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《Discover》 |2012年第9期|p.14-15|共2页
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EMMA BRYCE;
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机译：正在进行的Covid-19流行病曲线表示，在中国的初始点传播，每天的新案例的日志正态分布，可预测的爆发版3：试验到日常情况下的峰值后，预测方程变得可靠和使用等式的衍生作用检测关键变化的时间确定爆发的长度

HOW AN OUTBREAK SPREADS

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