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Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on climate variability over Southwest Asia

机译：大规模电信连接对西南亚洲气候变异性的影响

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摘要

The atmospheric low frequency variability at a regional or global scale is represented by teleconnection. Using monthly dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1971-2016, the impacts of four large-scale teleconnection patterns on the climate variability over Southwest Asia are investigated. The large-scale features include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection patterns, as well as western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) sea surface temperature anomaly index. Results indicate that ENSO and EA are the first leading modes that explain variation of Southwest Asian precipitation, with positive (negative) anomalies during El Nino (La Nina) and the negative (positive) phase of EA. Variation of Southwest Asian near-surface temperature is most strongly related to WTIO index, with above-average (below-average) temperature during the positive (negative) phase of WTIO index, although the negative (positive) phase of NAO also favours the above-average (below-average) temperature. On the other hand, temperature (precipitation) over Southwest Asia shows the least response to ENSO (WTIO). ENSO and EA individually explain 13 percent annual variance of precipitation, while WTIO index explains 36 percent annual variance of near-surface temperature over Southwest Asia. Analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data indicated establishments of negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies in the middle troposphere over Southwest Asia during El Nino (La Nina) or the negative (positive) phase of NAO, EA and WTIO. The response of precipitation variability over Southwest Asia to NAO is opposite to that expected from the geopotential height anomalies, but the correlation between precipitation and NAO is not statistically significant. Due to predictability of large-scale teleconnections, results of this study are encouraging for improvement of the state-of-the-art seasonal prediction of the climate over Southwest Asia.
机译：区域或全球范围内的大气低频变异是由Teleconnection表示的。研究了1971 - 2016年期间的气候研究单位（CRU）的月度数据集，调查了四种大型遥理模式对西南亚气候变异性的影响。大规模的功能包括El Nino-Southern振荡（ENSO），北大西洋振荡（NAO）和东部大西洋（EA）遥感模式，以及西部热带印度洋（WTIO）海表面温度异常指数。结果表明，ENSO和EA是解释西南亚沉淀的变化的第一种主要模式，在EL NINO（LA NINO）期间具有正（阴性）异常和EA的阴性（阳性）相。西南亚洲接近表面温度的变化与WTIO指数最强烈相关，在WTIO指数的正（负）阶段期间的平均值（低于平均值）温度，尽管NAO的负（正）相位也有利于上述 - verage（低于平均水平）温度。另一方面，西南亚的温度（降水）显示对ENSO（WTIO）的最不响应。 ENSO和EA独立地解释了降水的年度方差13％，而WTIO指数在西南部近表面温度下解释了36％的年度方差。欧洲中距离预测中心（ECMWF）再分析临时（ERA-INSTIM）数据表明，在EL NINO（LA NINO）或负面（ NAO，EA和WTIO的正面）阶段。西南亚洲到Nao的降水变异性的响应与地球态高度异常的预期相反，但降水与NaO之间的相关性并不统计学意义。由于大规模电信连接的可预测性，这项研究的结果令人鼓舞，以改善西南西南气候的最先进的季节性预测。

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