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首页> 外文期刊>Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics >Predictive model for site specific simulation of ground motions based on earthquake scenarios
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Predictive model for site specific simulation of ground motions based on earthquake scenarios

机译：基于地震场景的地面运动现场模拟的预测模型

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摘要

A predictive stochastic model is developed based on regression relations that inputs a given earthquake scenario description and outputs seismic ground acceleration time histories at a site of interest. A bimodal parametric non-stationary Kanai-Tajimi (K-T) ground motion model lies at the core of the proposed predictive model. The functional forms that describe the temporal evolution of the K-T model parameters can effectively represent strong non-stationarities of the ground motion. Fully non-stationary ground motion time histories can be generated through the powerful Spectral Representation Method. A Californian subset of the available NGA-West2 database is used to develop and calibrate the predictive model. Samples of the model parameters are obtained by fitting the K-T model to the database records, and the resulting marginal distributions of the model parameters are efficiently described by standard probability models. The samples are translated to the standard normal space and linear random-effect regression models are established relating the transformed normal parameters to the commonly used earthquake scenario defining predictors: moment magnitude M-w, closest-to-site distance R-rup, and average shear-wave velocity VS30 at a site of interest. The random-effect terms in the developed regression models can effectively model the correlation among ground motions of the same earthquake event, in parallel to taking into account the location-dependent effects of each site. For validation purposes, simulated acceleration time histories based on the proposed predictive model are compared with recorded ground motions. In addition, the median and median plus/minus one standard deviation elastic response spectra of synthetic ground motions, pertaining to a variety of different earthquake scenarios, are compared to the associated response spectra computed by the NGA-West2 ground motion prediction equations and found to be in excellent agreement.
机译：基于回归关系开发了预测随机模型，该回归模型输入给定的地震场景描述并在感兴趣的地点输出地震地面加速时间历史。双峰参数非平稳Kanai-Tajimi（K-T）地面运动模型位于所提出的预测模型的核心。描述K-T模型参数随时间变化的函数形式可以有效地表示地面运动的强烈非平稳性。可以通过功能强大的“频谱表示法”生成完全非平稳的地面运动时间历史记录。可用的NGA-West2数据库的加利福尼亚子集用于开发和校准预测模型。通过将K-T模型拟合到数据库记录中来获取模型参数的样本，并通过标准概率模型有效地描述模型参数的边际分布。将样本转换为标准法线空间，并建立线性随机效应回归模型，将转换后的法线参数与定义预测变量的常用地震场景相关联：矩量级Mw，最接近现场的距离R-rup和平均剪力-感兴趣位置的波速VS30。所开发的回归模型中的随机效应项可以有效地对同一地震事件的地震动之间的相关性进行建模，同时考虑到每个站点的位置相关效应。为了进行验证，将基于建议的预测模型的模拟加速时间历史记录与记录的地面运动进行了比较。此外，将涉及各种不同地震场景的合成地面运动的中位数和中位数正/负一标准偏差弹性响应谱与NGA-West2地面运动预测方程计算的相关响应谱进行比较，发现非常一致。

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