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Probabilistic development of shear strength model for reinforced concrete squat walls

机译：钢筋混凝土蹲墙抗剪强度模型的概率发展

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In order to reconcile the larger scatter and avoid the biased estimate from deterministic predictions for the shear strength of reinforced concrete (RC) squat structural walls, a probabilistic shear strength model is developed in this paper based on the strut-and-tie model and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The strut-and-tie model is used to derive an appropriate function form for the probabilistic shear strength model, where four unknown model parameters (e.g. k(1), k(2), k(3) and k(4)) are defined carefully to guarantee them having a clear physical-based meaning so that the corresponding prior distribution ranges can be specified reasonably. Then, the GLUE method is adopted to estimate the posterior cumulative distribution of k(1), k(2), k(3) and k(4) with an available experimental database. Furthermore, to demonstrate the stability of the estimated posterior cumulative distribution, the sensitivity of three major aspects in GLUE method is investigated. Finally, based on the estimated cumulative distribution of k(1), k(2), k(3) and k(4), the developed probabilistic shear strength model is simplified as a mean prediction model and a standard deviation prediction model for facilitate using in engineering practice. Therefore, with the developed probabilistic shear strength model, not only can the squat structural walls be designed in confidence, but the accuracy of those deterministic predictions can be evaluated in a probabilistic manner. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：为了调和更大的散度并避免确定性预测中钢筋混凝土（RC）蹲式结构墙的抗剪强度估计值的偏倚，本文基于拉杆-拉杆模型和有限元法建立了概率抗剪强度模型。广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）方法。支撑杆-领带模型用于为概率抗剪强度模型导出适当的函数形式，其中四个未知模型参数（例如k（1），k（2），k（3）和k（4））为仔细定义以确保它们具有清晰的基于物理的含义，以便可以合理地指定相应的先验分布范围。然后，采用GLUE方法估计k（1），k（2），k（3）和k（4）的后累积分布，并提供一个可用的实验数据库。此外，为了证明估计的后验累积分布的稳定性，研究了GLUE方法中三个主要方面的敏感性。最后，根据估计的k（1），k（2），k（3）和k（4）的累积分布，将开发的概率剪切强度模型简化为均值预测模型和标准偏差预测模型，以方便在工程实践中使用。因此，利用开发的概率抗剪强度模型，不仅可以自信地设计蹲式结构墙，而且可以以概率方式评估那些确定性预测的准确性。版权所有（c）2016 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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