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On the number of records for structural risk estimation in PBEE

机译：PBEE中用于结构风险估计的记录数

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摘要

Response-history nonlinear dynamic analysis is an analytical tool that often sees use in risk-oriented earthquake engineering applications. In the context of performance-based earthquake engineering, dynamic analysis serves to obtain a probabilistic description of seismic structural vulnerability. This typically involves subjecting a nonlinear numerical computer model to a set of ground-motions that represent a sample of possible realizations of base acceleration at the site of interest. The analysis results are then used to calibrate a stochastic model that describes structural response as a function of shaking intensity. The sample size of the ground-motion record set is nowadays usually governed by computation-demand constraints, yet it directly affects the uncertainty in estimation of seismic response. The present study uses analytical and numerical means to investigate the record sample size, n, required to achieve quantifiable levels of mean relative estimation error on seismic risk metrics. Regression-based cloud analysis in the context of Cornell's reliability method and incremental dynamic analysis using various intensity measures were employed to derive a relation of the form Delta, where Delta is a parameter that depends on both the dispersion of structural responses and the shape of the hazard curve at the site. For the cases examined, n can be kept in the 40 to 100 range and achieve 10% mean relative error. The study can contribute to guide engineers towards an informed a-priori assessment of the number of records needed to achieve a desired value for the coefficient of variation of the estimator of structural seismic risk.
机译：响应历史非线性动力学分析是一种分析工具，经常在面向风险的地震工程应用中使用。在基于性能的地震工程中，动态分析有助于获得地震结构易损性的概率描述。这通常涉及使非线性数值计算机模型经受一组地面运动，这些运动代表了可能在感兴趣位置实现基本加速度的示例。然后，将分析结果用于校准随机模型，该模型描述结构响应与振动强度的关系。如今，地震动记录集的样本量通常受计算需求约束，但它直接影响地震响应估算的不确定性。本研究使用分析和数值方法来调查记录样本大小n，以达到地震风险度量标准的平均相对估计误差的可量化水平。在康奈尔（Cornell）可靠性方法的上下文中进行基于回归的云分析，并使用各种强度量度进行增量动态分析，以得出Delta / n形式的关系，其中Delta是一个参数，它既取决于结构响应的分散性，又取决于形状现场的危险曲线图。对于所检查的情况，n可以保持在40到100的范围内，并实现10％的平均相对误差。这项研究可以指导工程师进行先验评估，以获取所需的记录数量，以达到结构地震风险估算器变化系数的期望值。

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