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Ground motion spatial correlation fitting methods and estimation uncertainty

机译:地面运动空间相关拟合方法和估计不确定性

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摘要

Ground shaking intensity varies spatially in earthquakes, and many studies have estimated correlations of intensity from past earthquake data. This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and true variability in correlations from earthquake to earthquake. A procedure for evaluating estimation uncertainty is proposed and used to evaluate several methods that have been used in past studies to estimate correlations. The results indicate that a weighted least squares algorithm is most effective in estimating spatial correlation models and that earthquakes with at least 100 recordings are needed to produce informative earthquake-specific estimates of spatial correlations. The proposed procedure is also used to distinguish between estimation uncertainty and the true variability in model parameters that exist in a given data set. The estimation uncertainty is seen to vary between well-recorded and poorly recorded earthquakes, whereas the true variability is more stable.
机译:地面摇动强度在空间地发生地震而异,许多研究估计了来自过去地震数据的强度的相关性。本文提出了一种框架,用于量化估计相关性和地震地震的相关性的不确定性。提出了一种评估估计不确定性的过程,并用于评估过去研究以估计相关性的几种方法。结果表明,加权最小二乘算法在估计空间相关模型方面最有效,并且需要至少100个录制的地震来产生空间相关的信息丰富的地震估计。所提出的程序还用于区分估计不确定性和在给定数据集中存在的模型参数中的真正可变性。估计不确定性被认为在录制良好的地震中变化,而真正的变异性更稳定。

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