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Finance-growth-poverty nexus: a re-assessment of the trickle-down hypothesis in China

机译：金融，增长与贫困之间的联系：对中国the流假设的重新评估

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摘要

Poverty has remained one of the prominent challenges of humanity. Different solutions have been suggested to curb poverty. Economic growth and financial development are two such crucial tools for overcoming poverty, as frequently pointed out by economists. These tools work through the so-called trickle-down hypothesis, which contends that a well-functioning financial system would enhance poverty reduction by promoting economic growth. One country that appears to have manifested this hypothesis is China. However, the empirical test of the trickle-down hypothesis for China is scant. In addition, most of the existing studies have failed to account for regime-shift in parameters or structural breaks. This paper attempts to fill this void by testing the trickle-down hypothesis for China during the period 1985–2014. We utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as percentage of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth. By accounting for structural breaks in our empirical specifications, we found overwhelming support for the trickle-down hypothesis at the national level. That is, we found financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in China at the national level. This has important policy implications.
机译：贫困仍然是人类面临的重大挑战之一。已经提出了解决贫困的不同解决方案。正如经济学家经常指出的那样，经济增长和金融发展是克服贫困的两个关键工具。这些工具通过所谓的trick流假说起作用，该假说认为，运转良好的金融体系将通过促进经济增长来促进减贫。似乎已证明这一假设的国家是中国。但是，对于中国的the流假设的经验检验很少。另外，大多数现有研究未能解释参数或结构断裂的制度转变。本文试图通过检验1985-2014年间中国的trick细流假设来填补这一空白。我们使用了两个标准的代理进行金融发展，即：银行对私人部门的国内信贷占GDP的百分比，以及货币和准货币占GDP的百分比；人均实际GDP的年度百分比变化以替代经济增长；减贫的标准替代方法是：家庭人均最终消费支出人均增长。通过考虑我们的经验规范中的结构性突破，我们发现了对国家一级的trick流假设的压倒性支持。也就是说，我们发现金融发展会导致经济增长，进而导致中国在国家一级减少贫困。这具有重要的政策含义。

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