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Economic growth and government spending in Malaysia: a re-examination of Wagner and Keynesian views

机译：马来西亚的经济增长和政府支出：对瓦格纳和凯恩斯主义观点的重新审视

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By making use of annual data from Malaysia for the period 1970 to 2006, this paper examines Wagner's law and the Keynesian hypothesis concerning the link between real government spending and real GDP. Unlike most existing studies, we utilize both a bivariate and a multivariate model. In addition, we consider two cases: one that focuses on the link between aggregate government spending and GDP and the other where the link between government spending on education and GDP is considered. The use of a multivariate model serves to reduce the problem of serious misspecification which appears to have been ignored by most existing studies. The presence of cointegration is investigated by means of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. This approach also allows one to distinguish between the short and the long-run relationships. Within the context of a bivariate model, our empirical analysis reveals that aggregate government spending Granger causes the real GDP which supports Wagner's law. However, in a multivariate framework, we found support for the Keynesian hypothesis suggesting that omitted variables bias can significantly alter the validity of Wagner's law.
机译：通过利用马来西亚从1970年到2006年的年度数据，研究了瓦格纳定律和关于实际政府支出与实际GDP之间联系的凯恩斯假设。与大多数现有研究不同，我们同时使用了双变量和多变量模型。另外，我们考虑两种情况：一种侧重于政府总支出与GDP之间的联系，另一种侧重于政府教育支出与GDP之间的联系。多元模型的使用有助于减少严重的错误指定问题，而大多数现有研究似乎都忽略了这一问题。通过自动回归分布式滞后（ARDL）方法研究协整的存在。这种方法还允许人们区分短期和长期关系。在双变量模型的背景下，我们的经验分析表明，政府总支出格兰杰导致了支持瓦格纳定律的实际GDP。但是，在多变量框架中，我们发现了对凯恩斯假设的支持，该假设表明，遗漏变量偏差可以显着改变瓦格纳定律的有效性。

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