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HOUSE PRICES AND CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: MAKING SENSE OF THE US EXPERIENCE

机译：房屋价格和信用约束：感触美国的经验

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摘要

Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000s, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions - the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers - into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.
机译：由于省略了房价与租金之比和​​倒置的住房需求模型，导致抵押信贷供给（与次级抵押贷款繁荣相关）的外生变化，导致大多数美国房价模型在2000年代中期崩溃。先前的模型缺少有关首次购房者面临的信贷约束的数据。将信贷条件的度量（首次购买者的周期性调整的贷款对价值比率）纳入房屋价格与租金比率模型，可以产生稳定的长期关系，更精确的估计效果，合理的调整速度和改进的模型适合。

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  • 来源
    《The economic journal》 |2011年第552期|p.533-551|共19页
  • 作者

    John V. Duca; John Muellbauer; Anthony Murphy;

  • 作者单位

    Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N.Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, USA;

    Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N.Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, USA;

    Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N.Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, USA;

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